[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 13 Oct 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 14 10:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0043UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate with an M1 flare from
region 1865(S21E08) peaking at 0043UT. A partial halo CME was
observed in association with this event which is directed to
the south, however some part of the ejected plasma cloud is expected
to strike the Earth with an estimated arrival late on the 15th
or early on the 16th of October UT. This is in addition to the
CME observed on the 11th of October that is expected to cause
a glancing blow late on the 14th or early on the 15th. Region
1861(S08W17) also produced a C4 class flare peaking at 1758UT.
Coronagraph imagery after this time is still patchy, but a CME
can be observed possibly in association with this event, directed
to the south west. Initial analysis suggests it may not be geo-effective
however more detail will be given in tomorrow's report when more
data should be available. Solar wind conditions are ambient.
Solar activity is expected to remain at mostly Low levels with
some isolated M class flares probable over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Darwin 2 21100111
Townsville 2 21000011
Learmonth 1 11000001
Norfolk Island 0 00000001
Culgoora 2 21110011
Camden 1 10100001
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 3 21101111
Hobart 1 10101001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
Davis 6 32211022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin NA
Canberra NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0101 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 12 Unsettled
15 Oct 20 Active
16 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 13 October
and is current for 14-16 Oct. Magnetic conditions are Quiet.
A coronal hole high speed wind stream is expected to arrive at
Earth sometime in the next 24 hours. In addition, a glancing
blow from a CME is expected late in the day on the 14th or early
on the 15th of October UT. A subsequent CME strike is expected
around 24 hours after the first. This is expected to cause Unsettled
conditions on the 14th, with a possible Active period. Unsettled
to Active conditions are expected on the 15th with mostly Unsettled
conditions expected for the 16th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 12
October and is current for 12-14 Oct. HF conditions are currently
enhanced due to high levels of ionising EUV flux from multiple
sunspot regions. Expected geomagnetic activity over the next
few days may reduce the maximum useable frequency from the currently
enhanced levels, however at this stage conditions are not expected
to drop significantly below the forecast monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 39800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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