[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 October 13 issued 2334 UT on 14 Oct 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 15 10:34:34 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with C flares, mainly from
from region AR1865 on the east limb. AR1865 has potential for
M-class flares. The CME launched 11th October arrived at ~07UT
14th October, earlier than modelling predicted, perhaps increased
in velocity by proximity to a high speed solar wind stream from
a coronal hole that appears to have also taken effect this UT
day, as predicted. Prior to CME impact the solar wind speed was
drifting upwards from 300-350km/s and from 07UT it rose to 450-500km/sec
by 14UT and has been turbulent from 16UT. The IMF Bz went initially
southwards at CME onset, oscillating north and south after, with
peak southwards at -11nT at ~08UT, and has been mainly southwards
since in the -5nT range, conducive for merging with the geomagnetic
field. There are two more inbound CMEs; the first launched ~01OUT
13th October, due ~06UT 15th October; the 2nd launched ~18UT
13th October and due ~15UT 16th October. Both are angled south
of the ecliptic so should provide only glancing blows to the
geomagnetic field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 12 11344222
Darwin 10 11334222
Townsville 12 11344222
Learmonth 12 00335222
Norfolk Island 10 01343222
Culgoora 12 11344222
Camden 12 11344222
Canberra 9 00334221
Launceston 14 12344332
Hobart 14 12344332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
Davis 19 12553233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 1000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 20 Unsettled to Active
16 Oct 20 Unsettled to Active
17 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 13 October
and is current for 14-16 Oct. Magnetic conditions are returning
to Quiet levels after Active levels in the middle of the UT day
to to the coronal hole high speed wind stream arrival and a glancing
blow by a CME from 07UT. The CME had predominantly southwards
IMF BZ, conducive for merging with and energy transfer to the
geomagnetic field. The solar wind speed rose from 300km/s at
the start of the day to 450-500km/s and turbulent by the end
of the UT day. Two more CMEs are inbound (see solar section)
and due on the 15th and 16th October for glancing blows, enough
to induce Active conditions across both days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
17 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are currently enhanced due to high levels
of ionising EUV flux from multiple sunspot regions. Expected
geomagnetic activity over the next two days may reduce the maximum
useable frequency from the currently enhanced levels, however
at this stage conditions are not expected to drop significantly
below the forecast monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 26600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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