[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 12 Oct 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 13 10:30:18 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at Low levels with numerous
C class flares produced by region 1861(S09E08), the greatest
being a C5. There are 5 other sunspot regions on the visible
Sun. Solar wind conditions are ambient. Further analysis using
the Enlil solar wind model of the CME observed late in the UT
day on the 10th suggests a possible glancing blow late in the
day on the 14th or early on the 15th of October. In addition,
a coronal hole high speed wind stream is expected to arrive midway
through 14th. Solar flare activity is expected to remain mostly
at Low levels with a fair chance of some isolated M-class flare
activity over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Darwin 5 22111122
Townsville 3 11011112
Learmonth 2 01011022
Norfolk Island 2 00101022
Culgoora 3 11111112
Camden 3 11011112
Canberra 0 00000011
Launceston 4 11111122
Hobart 3 11110112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
Davis 7 12322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin NA
Canberra NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2221 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 5 Quiet
14 Oct 12 Unsettled
15 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
Quiet for the 13th. On the 14th, a coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream is expected to arrive, bringing possible isolated
Active periods followed by Unsettled conditions. A possible glancing
blow from a CME may also occur late in the 14th or early on the
15th, also potentially causing isolated Active conditions and
contributing to Unsettled conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
14 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
15 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 12
October and is current for 12-14 Oct. HF conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 55500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list