[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 09 Oct 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 10 10:30:17 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/--    0148UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Oct             11 Oct             12 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with 
an M2 flare from region 1865(S21E58). There are numerous small 
sunspot regions on the visible Sun. The solar wind speed is falling 
from a high or 700 km/s early in the UT day to around 450 km/s. 
The IMF Bt and Bz components are returning to ambient levels. 
Flare activity is expected to be at mostly Low levels for the 
next 3 days, with a chance of M class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      20   44443323
      Cocos Island        17   43433323
      Darwin              18   44433323
      Townsville          21   44443324
      Learmonth           29   55543423
      Alice Springs       22   45443323
      Culgoora            19   44442323
      Gingin              22   54434323
      Camden              20   -5442323
      Canberra            17   34442323
      Hobart              25   45543323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    45   44764513
      Casey               23   55433323
      Mawson              35   66543313

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct : 
      Darwin              74   (Active)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           43   (Unsettled)
      Alice Springs        3   (Quiet)
      Gingin              62   (Active)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   0101 1155     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Oct    12    Unsettled
11 Oct     5    Quiet
12 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Active early in the previous 
day before returning to mostly Unsettled after around 12UT. Unsettled 
conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours before 
returning to Quiet for the following 2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Oct    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      68
Oct      72
Nov      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Oct    60    Near predicted monthly values
11 Oct    72    Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct    72    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 25 was issued 
on 8 October and is current for 9-10 Oct. HF communication conditions 
have been variable over the last 24 hours with some enhanced 
and depressed period of around +/- 20%. Central and northern 
Australia should see mostly normal conditions over the next day, 
with some depressed periods possible for central regions. Southern 
regions are expected to see depressions of up to 30% over the 
next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 301 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    33200 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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