[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 08 Oct 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 9 10:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Seven regions on the visible disc with AR11861 (S12
E49) exhibiting growth. Other regions appear stable. A filament
liftoff in conjunction with a CME occurred on the north-east
limb around 0900 UT. SDO images show further filament liftoff
at ~2144 UT also in the north-east quadrant. While the 0900 UT
CME may be geo-effective the latter filament ejection should
impact Earth. Any effect is likely 10-11 Oct. ACE data show solar
wind parameters were ambient until ~1940 UT although a weak shock
was observed in the solar wind at 1336 UT. After 1940 UT, wind
speed rose from 300 km/s to 600 km/s with the north-south IMF
component ranging between -18 and +23 nT. This activity is likely
to be the arrival of the 6 Oct CME. ACE EPAM data indicates an
energetic ion enhancement event beginning 08/1705UT, which can
be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36
hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Quiet to minor
storm
Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K
Australian Region 13 11002055
Cocos Island 12 00001155
Darwin 14 11002155
Townsville 14 11012155
Learmonth 17 10002156
Alice Springs 13 11002055
Culgoora 14 21002055
Gingin 18 11012056
Camden 11 01012045
Canberra 10 00011045
Launceston 1 1100----
Hobart 11 01012045
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
Macquarie Island 9 00022035
Casey 11 23211044
Mawson 16 22101164
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 4 1220 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Oct 18 Unsettled to minor storm
10 Oct 10 Unsettled
11 Oct 20 Unsettled to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 8 October and
is current for 9 Oct only. A weak (21nT) impulse was observed
at 8 Oct/2021UT in the IPS magnetometer data. Current activity
is likely due to a CME on 6 Oct. Activity should increase again,
probably on 11 Oct, due to further CME activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Oct 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 25-45% 07-15 UT. Depressed 25% 23 UT. Near
predicted monthly values at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressed 25%
at 21 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions of 20-30%
17-19 UT at Townsville and 20% at 23 UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
10 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
11 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 25 was issued
on 8 October and is current for 9-10 Oct. Depressions to 30%
possible at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 33700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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