[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 07 Oct 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 8 10:30:15 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Oct             09 Oct             10 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with several C class 
flares occurring over the last 24 hours, the greatest a C6. Solar 
wind conditions are ambient. Analysis of a faint halo CME observed 
on the 6th of October suggests a CME impact early on the 10th 
of October. This will be a direct hit, however the CME is small. 
Solar flare activity is expected to remain at low levels for 
the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22111101
      Cocos Island         2   11111100
      Darwin               3   22111101
      Townsville           4   22111111
      Learmonth            4   22111211
      Alice Springs        3   22111101
      Culgoora             3   2111110-
      Gingin               3   11111211
      Camden               4   22211101
      Canberra             3   12111101
      Launceston           4   12211211
      Hobart               3   12211110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     2   12210100
      Casey                9   34321111
      Mawson              12   14212234

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Oct     5    Quiet
09 Oct     5    Quiet
10 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are at Quiet levels. An expected 
CME impact early on the 10th of October may cause a brief Unsettled 
to Active period followed by Unsettled conditions for several 
hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Oct    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      68
Oct      72
Nov      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Oct    70    Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct    70    Near predicted monthly values
10 Oct    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Expect near predicted MUF values for the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 307 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    21700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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