[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 10 Oct 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 11 10:30:19 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar flare activity is at low levels with several C1
class flares occurring over the last 24 hours. There are numerous
sunspot regions on the visible Sun, the most significant are
the previously M flaring region 1865(S23E47) and region 1861(S11E24)
which has grown significantly in the last 24 hours. The two regions
produced the bulk of the C class flares observed. Solar wind
conditions continue to return to ambient after the recent CME
effects. The solar wind speed remains mildly elevated at around
420 km/s. Solar flare activity is expected to be mostly Low with
a chance of M class flare activity over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22121101
Cocos Island 3 22111100
Darwin 4 22121101
Townsville 6 23122111
Learmonth 7 33122211
Alice Springs 4 22121101
Culgoora 5 22131111
Gingin 5 32122101
Camden 5 22131111
Canberra 5 22131101
Launceston - --------
Hobart 9 43231101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
Macquarie Island 9 33241200
Casey 9 43321111
Mawson 24 65322124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 26 5454 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Oct 5 Quiet
13 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly Quiet with some
Unsettled periods. Some Unsettled periods can be expected over
the next 24 hours before returning to mostly Quiet for the following
2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
13 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 572 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 60100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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