[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 28 Nov 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 29 10:30:17 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Nov             30 Nov             01 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours. Two 
low level C-class flares were observed during this period. Solar 
wind speed mostly stayed between 260 and 340 km/s during the 
last 24 hours. IMF Bz mostly stayed between +/- 4nT during this 
period. Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the 
next three days with some possibility of isolated M-class event.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11001101
      Darwin               2   11101101
      Townsville           2   21101101
      Learmonth            2   11101102
      Alice Springs        1   10001001
      Culgoora             1   10001110
      Gingin               1   11001101
      Camden               2   11101111
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   11001101
      Hobart               1   11001100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                6   23311111
      Mawson               4   11002123
      Davis                3   12102111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Nov     3    Quiet
30 Nov     3    Quiet
01 Dec     3    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet for the last 24 hours. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 20 to 30% 
MUF enhancements were observed during the last 24 hours. Strong 
sporadic E-layers were observed on some mid latitude locations 
during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions with mild MUFs 
enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Nov   143

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Nov   140    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
30 Nov   140    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
01 Dec   140    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 20 to 30% 
MUF enhancements were observed across Aus/NZ region during the 
last 24 hours. Strong sporadic E-layers were observed on some 
mid latitude locations during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions 
with mild MUFs enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 307 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    22000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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