[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 29 Nov 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 30 10:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours. Today's
largest event was a C1 flare from region 1907(S09W22) at 1006UT.
Solar wind speed gradually increased from 270 to 350 km/s during
the last 24 hours. Sustained periods of southward Bz (at times
up to around -10nT) were observed today. Low levels of solar
activity may be expected for the next three days with some
possibility of isolated M-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 13222332
Darwin 9 13222332
Townsville 9 13222332
Learmonth 10 12222342
Alice Springs 9 13222331
Culgoora 8 13222232
Gingin 9 12222341
Camden 11 23322332
Canberra 5 02221221
Launceston 10 13232332
Hobart 9 13222331
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
Macquarie Island 6 12131221
Casey 18 35323243
Mawson 26 32223372
Davis 16 34333242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 3 Quiet
01 Dec 3 Quiet
02 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to slight strengthening in the solar wind stream
and sustained periods of negative Bz, geomagnetic conditions
increased up to unsettled today. Mostly quiet conditions may
be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 15 to 35%
MUF enhancements were observed during the last 24 hours. Strong
sporadic E-layers were observed on some mid latitude locations
during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions with mild MUF
enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov 140 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
01 Dec 140 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
02 Dec 140 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 15 to 35%
MUF enhancements were observed across Aus/NZ region during the
last 24 hours. Strong sporadic E-layers were observed on some
mid latitude locations during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions
with mild MUF enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 276 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 20200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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