[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 29 Nov 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 30 10:30:17 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Nov             01 Dec             02 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours. Today's 
largest event was a C1 flare from region 1907(S09W22) at 1006UT. 
Solar wind speed gradually increased from 270 to 350 km/s during 
the last 24 hours. Sustained periods of southward Bz (at times 
up to around -10nT) were observed today. Low levels of solar 
activity may be expected for the next three days with some 
possibility of isolated M-class event.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   13222332
      Darwin               9   13222332
      Townsville           9   13222332
      Learmonth           10   12222342
      Alice Springs        9   13222331
      Culgoora             8   13222232
      Gingin               9   12222341
      Camden              11   23322332
      Canberra             5   02221221
      Launceston          10   13232332
      Hobart               9   13222331    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     6   12131221
      Casey               18   35323243
      Mawson              26   32223372
      Davis               16   34333242

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Nov     3    Quiet
01 Dec     3    Quiet
02 Dec     3    Quiet

COMMENT: Due to slight strengthening in the solar wind stream 
and sustained periods of negative Bz, geomagnetic conditions 
increased up to unsettled today. Mostly quiet conditions may 
be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 15 to 35% 
MUF enhancements were observed during the last 24 hours. Strong 
sporadic E-layers were observed on some mid latitude locations 
during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions with mild MUF 
enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Nov   143

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Nov   140    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
01 Dec   140    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
02 Dec   140    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 15 to 35% 
MUF enhancements were observed across Aus/NZ region during the 
last 24 hours. Strong sporadic E-layers were observed on some 
mid latitude locations during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions 
with mild MUF enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 276 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    20200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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