[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 27 Nov 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 28 10:30:19 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Nov 29 Nov 30 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours. Today's
largest event was a long duration C1.4 flare that peaked at 1539UT.
Solar wind speed mostly stayed between 270 and 320 km/s during
the last 24 hours. IMF Bz mostly stayed positive upto around
5nT during this period. A non-earthward directed partial halo
CME was also observed today. A recurring previously active region
is rotating onto the visible solar disk. This may lead to a rise
in solar activity over the next three days. Low levels of solar
activity may be expected for the next three days with some possibility
of isolated M-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11111211
Darwin 4 21111212
Townsville 4 21111212
Learmonth 4 22111201
Alice Springs 3 21111201
Culgoora 3 11111211
Gingin 3 21111201
Camden 3 11111211
Canberra 1 01100100
Launceston 4 12211211
Hobart 4 12211201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 6 32221111
Mawson 2 20002200
Davis 3 21112101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Nov 4 Quiet
29 Nov 4 Quiet
30 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet for the last 24 hours.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 20 to 30%
MUF enhancements were observed during the last 24 hours. Strong
sporadic E-layers were observed on some mid latitude locations
during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions with mild MUFs
enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Nov 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Nov 140 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
29 Nov 140 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
30 Nov 140 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 20 to 30%
MUF enhancements were observed across Aus/NZ region during the
last 24 hours. Strong sporadic E-layers were observed on some
mid latitude locations during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions
with mild MUFs enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 30000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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