[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 27 Nov 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 28 10:30:19 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Nov             29 Nov             30 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours. Today's 
largest event was a long duration C1.4 flare that peaked at 1539UT. 
Solar wind speed mostly stayed between 270 and 320 km/s during 
the last 24 hours. IMF Bz mostly stayed positive upto around 
5nT during this period. A non-earthward directed partial halo 
CME was also observed today. A recurring previously active region 
is rotating onto the visible solar disk. This may lead to a rise 
in solar activity over the next three days. Low levels of solar 
activity may be expected for the next three days with some possibility 
of isolated M-class event.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111211
      Darwin               4   21111212
      Townsville           4   21111212
      Learmonth            4   22111201
      Alice Springs        3   21111201
      Culgoora             3   11111211
      Gingin               3   21111201
      Camden               3   11111211
      Canberra             1   01100100
      Launceston           4   12211211
      Hobart               4   12211201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00100000
      Casey                6   32221111
      Mawson               2   20002200
      Davis                3   21112101

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Nov     4    Quiet
29 Nov     4    Quiet
30 Nov     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet for the last 24 hours. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 20 to 30% 
MUF enhancements were observed during the last 24 hours. Strong 
sporadic E-layers were observed on some mid latitude locations 
during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions with mild MUFs 
enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Nov   140

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Nov   140    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
29 Nov   140    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
30 Nov   140    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 20 to 30% 
MUF enhancements were observed across Aus/NZ region during the 
last 24 hours. Strong sporadic E-layers were observed on some 
mid latitude locations during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions 
with mild MUFs enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 311 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    30000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list