[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 26 Nov 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 27 10:30:18 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours. Several
B-class and one C1.6 flares were observed during this period.
This C1.6 flare peaked at 0129UT and came from a region that
is rotating onto the eastern limb of the visible solar disk.
Solar wind speed mostly stayed between 270 and 340 km/s during
the last 24 hours. IMF Bz mostly varied between +4/-2 nT during
this period, staying positive for relatively longer periods of
time. Minor enhancements in solar wind parameters are possible
on 27 November due to the effect of a small coronal hole in the
northern hemisphere of the sun. Very low levels of solar activity
may be expected for the next three days with some possibility
of isolated C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 10000112
Darwin 3 11000113
Townsville 2 01000122
Learmonth 1 00000111
Alice Springs 2 10000112
Culgoora 1 00000112
Gingin 0 00000011
Camden 2 11010112
Canberra 0 00000011
Launceston 2 11000122
Hobart 1 10000012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 4 22210012
Mawson 4 11110113
Davis 3 12110112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Nov 5 Quiet
29 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet for the last 24 hours.
Geomagnetic conditions may become unsettled on 27 November due
to the possible effect of a high speed solar wind stream from
a small coronal hole. Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity may be
expected on 28 and 29 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 15 to 25%
MUF enhancements were observed during the last 24 hours. Strong
sporadic E-layers were observed on some mid latitude locations
during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions with MUFs near
monthly predicted values may be expected on 27 November with
the possibility of minor to mild degradations on high latitudes
on this day. Minor to mild MUF enhancements and improvements
in HF conditions may be expected on 28 and 29 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
28 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Nov 125 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 15 to 25%
MUF enhancements were observed across Aus/NZ region during the
last 24 hours. Strong sporadic E-layers were observed on some
mid latitude locations during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions
with MUFs near monthly predicted values may be expected on 27
November with the possibility of minor to mild degradations on
high latitudes on this day. Minor to mild MUF enhancements and
improvements in HF conditions may be expected on 28 and 29 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 31700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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