[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 26 Nov 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 27 10:30:18 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Nov             28 Nov             29 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours. Several 
B-class and one C1.6 flares were observed during this period. 
This C1.6 flare peaked at 0129UT and came from a region that 
is rotating onto the eastern limb of the visible solar disk. 
Solar wind speed mostly stayed between 270 and 340 km/s during 
the last 24 hours. IMF Bz mostly varied between +4/-2 nT during 
this period, staying positive for relatively longer periods of 
time. Minor enhancements in solar wind parameters are possible 
on 27 November due to the effect of a small coronal hole in the 
northern hemisphere of the sun. Very low levels of solar activity 
may be expected for the next three days with some possibility 
of isolated C-class event.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   10000112
      Darwin               3   11000113
      Townsville           2   01000122
      Learmonth            1   00000111
      Alice Springs        2   10000112
      Culgoora             1   00000112
      Gingin               0   00000011
      Camden               2   11010112
      Canberra             0   00000011
      Launceston           2   11000122
      Hobart               1   10000012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000001
      Casey                4   22210012
      Mawson               4   11110113
      Davis                3   12110112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Nov     9    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Nov     5    Quiet
29 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet for the last 24 hours. 
Geomagnetic conditions may become unsettled on 27 November due 
to the possible effect of a high speed solar wind stream from 
a small coronal hole. Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity may be 
expected on 28 and 29 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 15 to 25% 
MUF enhancements were observed during the last 24 hours. Strong 
sporadic E-layers were observed on some mid latitude locations 
during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions with MUFs near 
monthly predicted values may be expected on 27 November with 
the possibility of minor to mild degradations on high latitudes 
on this day. Minor to mild MUF enhancements and improvements 
in HF conditions may be expected on 28 and 29 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Nov   116

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values
28 Nov   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Nov   125    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 15 to 25% 
MUF enhancements were observed across Aus/NZ region during the 
last 24 hours. Strong sporadic E-layers were observed on some 
mid latitude locations during this period. Mostly normal HF conditions 
with MUFs near monthly predicted values may be expected on 27 
November with the possibility of minor to mild degradations on 
high latitudes on this day. Minor to mild MUF enhancements and 
improvements in HF conditions may be expected on 28 and 29 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 326 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    31700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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