[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 25 Nov 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 26 10:30:22 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Nov             27 Nov             28 Nov
Activity     Low                Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 25 November. Several B-class 
and two C-class flares were observed on this day, the largest 
being a C2 event from region 1904 which has just passed the limb. 
This event peaked at 1149UT. Solar wind speed mostly stayed between 
300 and 330 km/s during the last 24 hours. IMF Bz varied between 
+/-3 nT during this period, staying positive for relatively longer 
periods of time. Minor enhancements in solar wind parameters 
are possible on 26 and 27 November due to the effect of a small 
coronal hole in the northern hemisphere of the sun. Low levels 
of solar activity on 26 November and very low on 27 and 28 November 
may be expected.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   01000001
      Darwin               0   10000001
      Townsville           1   11100011
      Learmonth            0   01000001
      Alice Springs        0   00000001
      Culgoora             0   00000010
      Gingin               0   01000000
      Camden               1   11100010
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   01100001
      Hobart               0   01100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                9   24421010
      Mawson               4   13101021
      Davis                5   12212022

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov     9    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 25 November. 
A filament eruption (N32E15) was observed at 23:42 UT on 23 Nov 
and a small coronal hole is currently taking a geoeffective position. 
Geomagnetic conditions may become unsettled during 26-27 November. 
Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity may be expected on 28 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal during 
the next three days with some possibility of minor degradations 
on high latitudes on 26 and 27 November. Minor MUF enhancements 
may be observed on 28 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Nov   110

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values
27 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values
28 Nov   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 15 to 20% 
MUF enhancements were observed across Aus/NZ region during 25 
November, UT day. Mostly normal HF conditions with MUFs near 
monthly predicted values may be expected from 26 to 28 November 
with some possibility of minor to mild MUF enhancements on 28 
November.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 338 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    68600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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