[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 25 Nov 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 26 10:30:22 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 25 November. Several B-class
and two C-class flares were observed on this day, the largest
being a C2 event from region 1904 which has just passed the limb.
This event peaked at 1149UT. Solar wind speed mostly stayed between
300 and 330 km/s during the last 24 hours. IMF Bz varied between
+/-3 nT during this period, staying positive for relatively longer
periods of time. Minor enhancements in solar wind parameters
are possible on 26 and 27 November due to the effect of a small
coronal hole in the northern hemisphere of the sun. Low levels
of solar activity on 26 November and very low on 27 and 28 November
may be expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A K
Australian Region 0 01000001
Darwin 0 10000001
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 0 01000001
Alice Springs 0 00000001
Culgoora 0 00000010
Gingin 0 01000000
Camden 1 11100010
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 01100001
Hobart 0 01100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 9 24421010
Mawson 4 13101021
Davis 5 12212022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 25 November.
A filament eruption (N32E15) was observed at 23:42 UT on 23 Nov
and a small coronal hole is currently taking a geoeffective position.
Geomagnetic conditions may become unsettled during 26-27 November.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity may be expected on 28 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal during
the next three days with some possibility of minor degradations
on high latitudes on 26 and 27 November. Minor MUF enhancements
may be observed on 28 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Nov 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
27 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
28 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of 15 to 20%
MUF enhancements were observed across Aus/NZ region during 25
November, UT day. Mostly normal HF conditions with MUFs near
monthly predicted values may be expected from 26 to 28 November
with some possibility of minor to mild MUF enhancements on 28
November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 68600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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