[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 24 Nov 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 25 10:30:20 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Nov             26 Nov             27 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 24 Nov. There were 7 C-class 
X ray flares in the range C1.0 to C4.7 from AR 1904 which is 
located near the north west limb. AR 1905 is located near the 
north east limb and also has the potential for significant activity. 
Solar activity is expected to remain eruptive with a chance of 
a M-class solar flare during 25-26 Nov. A filament eruption (N32E15) 
at 23:42 UT on 23 Nov may affect Earth during 26-27 Nov. A small 
coronal hole in the northern hemisphere is traversing the solar 
meridian and elevated solar wind speeds may affect Earth during 
26-27 Nov. The solar wind speed was mostly in the range 300 km/s 
to 380 km/s during 24 Nov, and is presently about 340 km/s. The 
magnitude of the IMF was mostly in the range 4-6 nT and the Bz 
component varied mostly in the range -4 nT to +4 nT during 24 
Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Darwin               2   21100012
      Townsville           1   10100011
      Learmonth            1   11000001
      Alice Springs        0   10000001
      Culgoora             1   10100011
      Gingin               0   10000001
      Camden               3   11221011
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           2   11110011
      Hobart               1   11100001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey               14   44431112
      Mawson               4   12211112
      Davis                7   22322121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1232 3211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Nov     5    Quiet
26 Nov     7    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 24 Nov. The 
solar rotation board suggests a possible reoccurrence geomagnetic 
activity during 26-27 Nov. A filament eruption (N32E15) was observed 
at 23:42 UT on 23 Nov and a small coronal hole is currently traversing 
the solar meridian. Geomagnetic conditions may become unsettled 
during 26-27 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Enhanced       Enhanced       Enhanced
26 Nov      Normal         Enhanced       Enhanced
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Enhanced

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal to enhanced 
at low and middle latitude stations and enhanced at high latitude 
stations during 25 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Nov    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced during local night
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Strong enhancements during the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Nov   130    Enhanced by 10-40% above predicted monthly values
26 Nov   120    Enhanced by 5-30% above predicted monthly values
27 Nov   110    Enhanced by 0-20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support in the Australian 
region was much weaker during 24 Nov than previous days. The 
propagation support was mostly near predicted monthly values 
during the day and enhanced to strongly enhanced during the night. 
The propagation support was enhanced up to 70% in the Darwin 
region overnight. The propagation support was strongly enhanced 
at many stations early this morning and strongly enhanced conditions 
are expected today.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 356 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    88600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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