[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 24 Nov 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 25 10:30:20 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 24 Nov. There were 7 C-class
X ray flares in the range C1.0 to C4.7 from AR 1904 which is
located near the north west limb. AR 1905 is located near the
north east limb and also has the potential for significant activity.
Solar activity is expected to remain eruptive with a chance of
a M-class solar flare during 25-26 Nov. A filament eruption (N32E15)
at 23:42 UT on 23 Nov may affect Earth during 26-27 Nov. A small
coronal hole in the northern hemisphere is traversing the solar
meridian and elevated solar wind speeds may affect Earth during
26-27 Nov. The solar wind speed was mostly in the range 300 km/s
to 380 km/s during 24 Nov, and is presently about 340 km/s. The
magnitude of the IMF was mostly in the range 4-6 nT and the Bz
component varied mostly in the range -4 nT to +4 nT during 24
Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 2 21100012
Townsville 1 10100011
Learmonth 1 11000001
Alice Springs 0 10000001
Culgoora 1 10100011
Gingin 0 10000001
Camden 3 11221011
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 2 11110011
Hobart 1 11100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 14 44431112
Mawson 4 12211112
Davis 7 22322121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1232 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 5 Quiet
26 Nov 7 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 24 Nov. The
solar rotation board suggests a possible reoccurrence geomagnetic
activity during 26-27 Nov. A filament eruption (N32E15) was observed
at 23:42 UT on 23 Nov and a small coronal hole is currently traversing
the solar meridian. Geomagnetic conditions may become unsettled
during 26-27 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Enhanced Enhanced Enhanced
26 Nov Normal Enhanced Enhanced
27 Nov Normal Normal Enhanced
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal to enhanced
at low and middle latitude stations and enhanced at high latitude
stations during 25 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced during local night
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Strong enhancements during the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov 130 Enhanced by 10-40% above predicted monthly values
26 Nov 120 Enhanced by 5-30% above predicted monthly values
27 Nov 110 Enhanced by 0-20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support in the Australian
region was much weaker during 24 Nov than previous days. The
propagation support was mostly near predicted monthly values
during the day and enhanced to strongly enhanced during the night.
The propagation support was enhanced up to 70% in the Darwin
region overnight. The propagation support was strongly enhanced
at many stations early this morning and strongly enhanced conditions
are expected today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 88600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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