[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 23 Nov 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 24 10:30:21 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0232UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Nov             25 Nov             26 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate during 23 Nov. There were 
two M-class solar X-ray flares, an M1.1 event peaking at 02:32 
UT and an M1.0 event peaking at 12:57 UT. Both of these flares 
were associated with newly numbered AR 1904 (N12W60) which is 
approaching the western limb. Hence any coronal ejections associated 
with AR 1904 are unlikely to be geoeffective. There were also 
eight C-class flares in the range C1.5 to C5.4 during 23 Nov. 
Solar activity is expected to remain low (C-class flares) to 
moderate (occasional M-class flare) during the next 48 hours. 
The solar wind speed was mostly in the range 270 km/s to 380 
km/s during 23 Nov. The IMF Bz component varied mostly in the 
range -5 nT to +5nT, except during 05-09 UT when it was persistently 
negative, with Bz reaching -8 nT. The solar wind conditions are 
expected to remain light during 24 Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22322121
      Darwin               7   22322112
      Townsville           7   22322121
      Learmonth            7   22322122
      Alice Springs        6   22322111
      Culgoora             6   12322121
      Gingin               7   22322122
      Camden               8   22422121
      Canberra             5   12322110
      Launceston          12   23433221
      Hobart               8   13422210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     8   12343100
      Casey               24   35633222
      Mawson              15   33443231
      Davis               24   2455422-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1000 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Nov     5    Quiet
25 Nov     6    Quiet
26 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during 
23 Nov. A four hour interval of persistent Bz southward conditions 
during 05-09 UT caused a very minor geomagnetic storm. The preliminary 
Australian region Dst index decreased to -42 nT at 12 UT. Although 
this was a very weak storm, the favourable timing, 10 pm AEST, 
meant that auroras would have been visible low on the horizon 
from dark sky locations in Tasmania. Geomagnetic conditions are 
expected to remain quiet 24 Nov, becoming quiet to unsettled 
during 25-26 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Enhanced       Enhanced       Enhanced         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Enhanced
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Enhanced
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Enhanced

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be near normal to enhanced 
at most stations during 24 Nov.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Nov   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Nov   115    Enhanced by 0-20% above predicted monthly values
25 Nov   125    Enhanced by 5-30% above predicted monthly values
26 Nov   120    Enhanced by 5-25% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support was mostly enhanced 
to strongly enhanced at Australian stations during 23 Nov. However, 
intervals of near monthly predicted values occurred during the 
day time hours at many stations, and the ionospheric conditions 
are showing signs of returning to near normal values this morning. 
The weaker support early this morning implies a softening of 
propagation conditions for the remainder of 24 Nov. The day-to-day 
variability is large and the outlook for 25-26 Nov is still for 
enhanced conditions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 326 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    34700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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