[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 23 Nov 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 24 10:30:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0232UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate during 23 Nov. There were
two M-class solar X-ray flares, an M1.1 event peaking at 02:32
UT and an M1.0 event peaking at 12:57 UT. Both of these flares
were associated with newly numbered AR 1904 (N12W60) which is
approaching the western limb. Hence any coronal ejections associated
with AR 1904 are unlikely to be geoeffective. There were also
eight C-class flares in the range C1.5 to C5.4 during 23 Nov.
Solar activity is expected to remain low (C-class flares) to
moderate (occasional M-class flare) during the next 48 hours.
The solar wind speed was mostly in the range 270 km/s to 380
km/s during 23 Nov. The IMF Bz component varied mostly in the
range -5 nT to +5nT, except during 05-09 UT when it was persistently
negative, with Bz reaching -8 nT. The solar wind conditions are
expected to remain light during 24 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 22322121
Darwin 7 22322112
Townsville 7 22322121
Learmonth 7 22322122
Alice Springs 6 22322111
Culgoora 6 12322121
Gingin 7 22322122
Camden 8 22422121
Canberra 5 12322110
Launceston 12 23433221
Hobart 8 13422210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Nov :
Macquarie Island 8 12343100
Casey 24 35633222
Mawson 15 33443231
Davis 24 2455422-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Nov 5 Quiet
25 Nov 6 Quiet
26 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during
23 Nov. A four hour interval of persistent Bz southward conditions
during 05-09 UT caused a very minor geomagnetic storm. The preliminary
Australian region Dst index decreased to -42 nT at 12 UT. Although
this was a very weak storm, the favourable timing, 10 pm AEST,
meant that auroras would have been visible low on the horizon
from dark sky locations in Tasmania. Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to remain quiet 24 Nov, becoming quiet to unsettled
during 25-26 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Enhanced Enhanced Enhanced
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Enhanced
25 Nov Normal Normal Enhanced
26 Nov Normal Normal Enhanced
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be near normal to enhanced
at most stations during 24 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Nov 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Nov 115 Enhanced by 0-20% above predicted monthly values
25 Nov 125 Enhanced by 5-30% above predicted monthly values
26 Nov 120 Enhanced by 5-25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support was mostly enhanced
to strongly enhanced at Australian stations during 23 Nov. However,
intervals of near monthly predicted values occurred during the
day time hours at many stations, and the ionospheric conditions
are showing signs of returning to near normal values this morning.
The weaker support early this morning implies a softening of
propagation conditions for the remainder of 24 Nov. The day-to-day
variability is large and the outlook for 25-26 Nov is still for
enhanced conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 34700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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