[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 22 Nov 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 23 10:30:23 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 143/97


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Nov             24 Nov             25 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 22 Nov. There were four 
C-class X ray flares in the range C1.2 to C3.6. The sunspot associated 
with AR 1899 is large but relatively stable magnetically. The 
current 3-day outlook is for C-class solar X-ray flares, with 
a small chance of an M-class flare. The solar wind speed was 
mostly in the range 300 km/s to 350 km/s and the IMF Bz component 
was mostly in the range -2 nT to +4 nT during 22 Nov. The IMF 
Bz component remained weakly northward for most of the UT day, 
but swung to very weakly southward during 16 UT. The current 
2 day outlook is for light solar wind conditions impacting Earth.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11010021
      Darwin               3   12110022
      Townsville           3   11011022
      Learmonth            1   11010011
      Alice Springs        2   01100022
      Culgoora             2   11010021
      Gingin               2   10010012
      Camden               2   11010021
      Canberra             1   00000021
      Launceston           2   11110021
      Hobart               2   10010021    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000010
      Casey                8   34220112
      Mawson               7   32101141
      Davis                5   22211022

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Nov     5    Quiet
24 Nov     5    Quiet
25 Nov     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet during 22 Nov 
and are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Enhanced       Enhanced       Strongly Enhanced         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Enhanced       Enhanced       Strongly Enhanced
24 Nov      Enhanced       Enhanced       Strongly Enhanced
25 Nov      Enhanced       Enhanced       Enhanced

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain enhanced at low 
and middle latitude stations and strongly enhanced at high latitude 
stations during the next 48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Nov   150

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available but probably enhanced.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Nov   140    Enhanced by 15-40% above predicted monthly values
24 Nov   135    Enhanced by 15-35% above predicted monthly values
25 Nov   130    Enhanced by 10-30% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support was strongly enhanced 
for most of the day at most Australian stations during 22 Nov. 
The preliminary observed T index was close to 150, far above 
the predicted monthly value of 71. The propagation support is 
expected to remain enhanced to strongly enhanced for most Southern 
Hemisphere communication circuits in coming days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    31500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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