[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 22 Nov 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 23 10:30:23 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 22 Nov. There were four
C-class X ray flares in the range C1.2 to C3.6. The sunspot associated
with AR 1899 is large but relatively stable magnetically. The
current 3-day outlook is for C-class solar X-ray flares, with
a small chance of an M-class flare. The solar wind speed was
mostly in the range 300 km/s to 350 km/s and the IMF Bz component
was mostly in the range -2 nT to +4 nT during 22 Nov. The IMF
Bz component remained weakly northward for most of the UT day,
but swung to very weakly southward during 16 UT. The current
2 day outlook is for light solar wind conditions impacting Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11010021
Darwin 3 12110022
Townsville 3 11011022
Learmonth 1 11010011
Alice Springs 2 01100022
Culgoora 2 11010021
Gingin 2 10010012
Camden 2 11010021
Canberra 1 00000021
Launceston 2 11110021
Hobart 2 10010021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000010
Casey 8 34220112
Mawson 7 32101141
Davis 5 22211022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 5 Quiet
24 Nov 5 Quiet
25 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet during 22 Nov
and are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Enhanced Enhanced Strongly Enhanced
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Enhanced Enhanced Strongly Enhanced
24 Nov Enhanced Enhanced Strongly Enhanced
25 Nov Enhanced Enhanced Enhanced
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain enhanced at low
and middle latitude stations and strongly enhanced at high latitude
stations during the next 48 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov 150
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available but probably enhanced.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov 140 Enhanced by 15-40% above predicted monthly values
24 Nov 135 Enhanced by 15-35% above predicted monthly values
25 Nov 130 Enhanced by 10-30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support was strongly enhanced
for most of the day at most Australian stations during 22 Nov.
The preliminary observed T index was close to 150, far above
the predicted monthly value of 71. The propagation support is
expected to remain enhanced to strongly enhanced for most Southern
Hemisphere communication circuits in coming days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 31500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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