[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 21 Nov 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 22 10:30:18 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1111UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 141/95


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Nov             23 Nov             24 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: The background solar UV flux is trending downwards as 
active regions rotate toward and beyond the western limb. The 
current 3-day outlook is for C-class solar X-ray flares, with 
a small chance of an M-class flare. AR1893 unleashed an M1.2 
solar flare peaking at 11:11 UT on 21 Nov. AR1893 was located 
just beyond the south western limb and the associated CME is 
not expected to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed declined 
from about 380 km/s to 330 km/s during 21 Nov. The IMF Bz component 
has been fluctuating between about -3 nT and +2 nT. The current 
3 day outlook remains for moderate solar wind conditions impacting 
Earth.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10000011
      Darwin               2   21000011
      Townsville           1   10000011
      Learmonth            2   11001002
      Alice Springs        0   00000001
      Culgoora             1   10000011
      Gingin               1   11000011
      Camden               1   10000011
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   10010011
      Hobart               0   10000001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                6   33211011
      Mawson               8   23113123
      Davis                9   23223032

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1111 2101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Nov     4    Quiet
23 Nov     5    Quiet
24 Nov     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet during 21 Nov 
and are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Enhanced       Enhanced       Strongly Enhanced         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Enhanced       Enhanced       Strongly Enhanced
23 Nov      Enhanced       Enhanced       Enhanced
24 Nov      Enhanced       Enhanced       Enhanced

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain enhanced at low 
and middle latitude stations, and strongly enhanced at high latitude 
stations, during the next 48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Nov   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available but probably enhanced.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 5-40% for most of the day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 10-35% for most of the day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-50% for most of the day
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20-60% for most of the day. 

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Nov   135    Enhanced by 15-40% above predicted monthly values
23 Nov   130    Enhanced by 15-30% above predicted monthly values
24 Nov   130    Enhanced by 10-30% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support was enhanced at 
most Australian stations during 21 Nov. The only Australian station 
to record persistent near normal propagation conditions was Perth 
during the day time. The propagation conditions tended to be 
more strongly enhanced for stations located at higher latitudes. 
The ionospheric propagation support was especially strong for 
Australian Antarctic stations, with many ionosondes recording 
persistent foF2 values corresponding to local T indices of approximately 
250. The propagation support is expected to remain strongly enhanced, 
especially at high latitude stations, but eventually weaken due 
to the gradual decline of solar UV flux combined with seasonal 
thermospheric behaviour.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 388 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    62700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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