[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Nov 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 21 10:30:20 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Four C-class solar flares occurred during the previous
24 hours, the largest being a C6.4 event peaking at 17:22 UT
on 20 Nov. SOHO LASCO coronagraphs show a succession of CMEs
expanding toward the west and south west in association with
this activity. At this stage, none of these CMEs are expected
to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed is presently just under
400 km/s and the IMF Bz component fluctuated between -4 nT and
+3 nT throughout 20 Nov. The current 3 day outlook is presently
for moderate solar wind conditions impacting Earth. The active
regions responsible for the most recent M and X class solar flares
are rotating around the western limb and the current 3-day outlook
is for C-class flares and declining background solar UV and X
ray flux. However, an isolated M class event is possible during
the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 21212011
Darwin 4 21212011
Townsville 3 21212010
Learmonth 3 21212001
Alice Springs 3 21112001
Culgoora 3 21212010
Gingin 3 21212000
Camden 6 2-313011
Canberra 1 10102000
Launceston 5 22213011
Hobart 5 22213011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
Macquarie Island 5 12124000
Casey 17 35532111
Mawson 10 33233121
Davis 14 33434121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 5 Quiet
22 Nov 6 Quiet
23 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 20 Nov and
are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Enhanced Enhanced Enhanced
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Enhanced Enhanced Enhanced
22 Nov Enhanced Enhanced Enhanced
23 Nov Enhanced Enhanced Enhanced
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain strongly enhanced
at most latitudes during the next 48 hours. There is a declining
chance of a SWF due to an M-class solar flare.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov 150
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available but probably strongly enhanced.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-45% for most of the day.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 10-35% for most of the day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Enhanced up to 50% during some hours.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 10-60% at most stations.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov 135 Enhanced by 15-40% above predicted monthly values
22 Nov 135 Enhanced by 15-40% above predicted monthly values
23 Nov 130 Enhanced by 15-30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support was strongly enhanced
for most of the day at most Australian stations during 20 Nov.
The preliminary observed T index was close to 150, far above
the predicted monthly value of 71. The propagation support is
expected to remain strongly enhanced in comming days, but eventually
weaken as the ionosphere begins to respond to the gradual decline
in solar UV flux. There is a declining chance of a SWF due to
an M-class solar flare during the next 48 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 60300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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