[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Nov 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 21 10:30:20 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 147/101


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Nov             22 Nov             23 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Four C-class solar flares occurred during the previous 
24 hours, the largest being a C6.4 event peaking at 17:22 UT 
on 20 Nov. SOHO LASCO coronagraphs show a succession of CMEs 
expanding toward the west and south west in association with 
this activity. At this stage, none of these CMEs are expected 
to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed is presently just under 
400 km/s and the IMF Bz component fluctuated between -4 nT and 
+3 nT throughout 20 Nov. The current 3 day outlook is presently 
for moderate solar wind conditions impacting Earth. The active 
regions responsible for the most recent M and X class solar flares 
are rotating around the western limb and the current 3-day outlook 
is for C-class flares and declining background solar UV and X 
ray flux. However, an isolated M class event is possible during 
the next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21212011
      Darwin               4   21212011
      Townsville           3   21212010
      Learmonth            3   21212001
      Alice Springs        3   21112001
      Culgoora             3   21212010
      Gingin               3   21212000
      Camden               6   2-313011
      Canberra             1   10102000
      Launceston           5   22213011
      Hobart               5   22213011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     5   12124000
      Casey               17   35532111
      Mawson              10   33233121
      Davis               14   33434121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0000 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Nov     5    Quiet
22 Nov     6    Quiet
23 Nov     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 20 Nov and 
are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Enhanced       Enhanced       Enhanced         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Enhanced       Enhanced       Enhanced
22 Nov      Enhanced       Enhanced       Enhanced
23 Nov      Enhanced       Enhanced       Enhanced

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain strongly enhanced 
at most latitudes during the next 48 hours. There is a declining 
chance of a SWF due to an M-class solar flare.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Nov   150

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available but probably strongly enhanced.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-45% for most of the day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 10-35% for most of the day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
      Enhanced up to 50% during some hours. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 10-60% at most stations.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Nov   135    Enhanced by 15-40% above predicted monthly values
22 Nov   135    Enhanced by 15-40% above predicted monthly values
23 Nov   130    Enhanced by 15-30% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support was strongly enhanced 
for most of the day at most Australian stations during 20 Nov. 
The preliminary observed T index was close to 150, far above 
the predicted monthly value of 71. The propagation support is 
expected to remain strongly enhanced in comming days, but eventually 
weaken as the ionosphere begins to respond to the gradual decline 
in solar UV flux. There is a declining chance of a SWF due to 
an M-class solar flare during the next 48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    60300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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