[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 19 Nov 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 20 10:30:23 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.0 1026UT probable all European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: The background solar UV flux is expected to continue
trending downwards as a cluster of active regions located in
the southern hemisphere recede beyond the western limb. Active
Region 1893 released a X1.0 class solar flare peaking at 10:26
UT on 19 Nov. Learmonth solar observatory detected a Type II
radio burst suggesting a CME velocity of 1049 km/s. The SOHO
LASCO C3 coronagraph confirmed a strong CME launched toward the
south west, and probably not geoeffective. The other strong CME
observed leaving the south east limb starting at 04:00 UT will
not be geoeffective. The solar wind speed, density and IMF magnitude
trended upward during 19 Nov. The solar wind speed is presently
just under 400 km/s and the IMF Bz component fluctuated between
-4 nT and +2 nT throughout 19 Nov. The flux of protons with energy
greater than 10 MeV has been rising and a minor solar radiation
storm level is possible today, 20 Nov. There is a significant
chance of an M-class flare and a small chance of another X-class
flare during the next 48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11102111
Darwin 3 11102121
Townsville 4 21102211
Learmonth 4 21102121
Alice Springs 3 11102111
Culgoora 2 10102111
Gingin 3 21001221
Camden 3 11102111
Canberra 1 00001110
Launceston 4 11102221
Hobart 3 11102211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 10001011
Casey 12 24422222
Mawson 12 22212344
Davis 10 2331----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 2011 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 5 Quiet
21 Nov 5 Quiet
22 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 19 Nov and
are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain strongly enhanced
at most latitudes during the next 48 hours. There is a significant
chance of a SWF due to an M-class solar flare.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov 130 Near to 15-40% above predicted monthly values
21 Nov 125 Near to 15-30% above predicted monthly values
22 Nov 125 Near to 15-20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support was strongly enhanced
for most of the day at most Australian stations during 19 Nov.
The preliminary observed T index was close to 140, far above
the predicted monthly value of 71. The propagation support is
expected to remain strongly enhanced in comming days, but eventually
weaken as the ionosphere begins to respond to the gradual decline
in solar UV flux. A SWF due to an M-class flare is possible during
the next 2-3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 67000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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