[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 19 Nov 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 20 10:30:23 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.0    1026UT  probable   all    European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 153/108


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Nov             21 Nov             22 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            140/94             140/94

COMMENT: The background solar UV flux is expected to continue 
trending downwards as a cluster of active regions located in 
the southern hemisphere recede beyond the western limb. Active 
Region 1893 released a X1.0 class solar flare peaking at 10:26 
UT on 19 Nov. Learmonth solar observatory detected a Type II 
radio burst suggesting a CME velocity of 1049 km/s. The SOHO 
LASCO C3 coronagraph confirmed a strong CME launched toward the 
south west, and probably not geoeffective. The other strong CME 
observed leaving the south east limb starting at 04:00 UT will 
not be geoeffective. The solar wind speed, density and IMF magnitude 
trended upward during 19 Nov. The solar wind speed is presently 
just under 400 km/s and the IMF Bz component fluctuated between 
-4 nT and +2 nT throughout 19 Nov. The flux of protons with energy 
greater than 10 MeV has been rising and a minor solar radiation 
storm level is possible today, 20 Nov. There is a significant 
chance of an M-class flare and a small chance of another X-class 
flare during the next 48 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11102111
      Darwin               3   11102121
      Townsville           4   21102211
      Learmonth            4   21102121
      Alice Springs        3   11102111
      Culgoora             2   10102111
      Gingin               3   21001221
      Camden               3   11102111
      Canberra             1   00001110
      Launceston           4   11102221
      Hobart               3   11102211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   10001011
      Casey               12   24422222
      Mawson              12   22212344
      Davis               10   2331----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   2011 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Nov     5    Quiet
21 Nov     5    Quiet
22 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 19 Nov and 
are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain strongly enhanced 
at most latitudes during the next 48 hours. There is a significant 
chance of a SWF due to an M-class solar flare.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Nov   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Nov   130    Near to 15-40% above predicted monthly values
21 Nov   125    Near to 15-30% above predicted monthly values
22 Nov   125    Near to 15-20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support was strongly enhanced 
for most of the day at most Australian stations during 19 Nov. 
The preliminary observed T index was close to 140, far above 
the predicted monthly value of 71. The propagation support is 
expected to remain strongly enhanced in comming days, but eventually 
weaken as the ionosphere begins to respond to the gradual decline 
in solar UV flux. A SWF due to an M-class flare is possible during 
the next 2-3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    67000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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