[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 18 Nov 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 19 10:30:19 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 163/117


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Nov             20 Nov             21 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            155/109            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
only minor flare activity from active regions 1893, 1897 and 
1900. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity 
is expected to be low to moderate 19-Nov, with chance of isolated 
M-class flares. The solar wind speed dropped below 400km/s as 
the Earth moved out of the coronal hole wind stream. The IMF 
Bz component was stable about 0nT and total IMF remains below 
3nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to be quiet next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   21100000
      Darwin               2   21100111
      Townsville           2   21000011
      Learmonth            2   21100001
      Alice Springs        0   20000000
      Culgoora             0   10100000
      Gingin               2   21100100
      Camden               1   20100010
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Launceston           2   21111001
      Hobart               0   10100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   01101000
      Casey               12   34431111
      Mawson               5   32221110
      Davis                7   32322110

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1132 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Nov     5    Quiet
20 Nov     5    Quiet
21 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours 
in the Australian region. Expect quiet conditions for the next 
3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal with 
a chance of SWFs 19-Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Nov   120

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Nov   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Strong ionospheric support was observed at all locations 
in the Australian region over the last 24 hours, particularly 
overnight. The enhanced conditions are expected to continue for 
the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 470 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    67900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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