[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 17 Nov 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 18 10:30:16 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0510UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 177/131


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Nov             19 Nov             20 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            170/124            170/124

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours, 
with an M1 event from active region 1900 (S21W50) and C-class 
events from regions 1893, 1897 and 1900. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate 
for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed declined gradually 
from ~550 km/s to ~450 km/s over the UT day with the waning of 
coronal hole effects. The IMF Bz component has been mostly neutral 
since 10UT, after fluctuating between +/-5nT earlier in the UT 
day.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221022
      Darwin               6   32221022
      Townsville           6   32221022
      Learmonth            8   33231112
      Alice Springs        5   22221012
      Culgoora             6   22321021
      Gingin               5   22221111
      Camden               6   22321021
      Canberra             3   21220011
      Launceston           8   22331122
      Hobart               6   22321111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     7   22332011
      Casey               20   55432122
      Mawson              21   34333254
      Davis               20   34453232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   3323 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Nov     5    Quiet
19 Nov     5    Quiet
20 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet over the last 
24 hours in the Australian region, with some brief unsettled 
periods. In Antarctica, minor storm levels were observed at times. 
Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal with 
a chance of SWFs for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Nov   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 15 
November and is current for 16-18 Nov. Significant MUF enhancements 
were observed at Niue Island and in southern AUS/NZ, with nighttime 
enhancements in northern AUS. Enhanced conditions are expected 
to continue for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 474 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:   167000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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