[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 17 Nov 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 18 10:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0510UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 177/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with an M1 event from active region 1900 (S21W50) and C-class
events from regions 1893, 1897 and 1900. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate
for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed declined gradually
from ~550 km/s to ~450 km/s over the UT day with the waning of
coronal hole effects. The IMF Bz component has been mostly neutral
since 10UT, after fluctuating between +/-5nT earlier in the UT
day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22221022
Darwin 6 32221022
Townsville 6 32221022
Learmonth 8 33231112
Alice Springs 5 22221012
Culgoora 6 22321021
Gingin 5 22221111
Camden 6 22321021
Canberra 3 21220011
Launceston 8 22331122
Hobart 6 22321111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
Macquarie Island 7 22332011
Casey 20 55432122
Mawson 21 34333254
Davis 20 34453232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3323 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 5 Quiet
19 Nov 5 Quiet
20 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet over the last
24 hours in the Australian region, with some brief unsettled
periods. In Antarctica, minor storm levels were observed at times.
Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal with
a chance of SWFs for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 15
November and is current for 16-18 Nov. Significant MUF enhancements
were observed at Niue Island and in southern AUS/NZ, with nighttime
enhancements in northern AUS. Enhanced conditions are expected
to continue for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 167000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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