[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 13 issued 2332 UT on 16 Nov 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 17 10:32:40 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0454UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.6    0750UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 175/129


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Nov             18 Nov             19 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            170/124

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours, 
with an M1 and four C-class flares from active region 1900 (S19W29). 
Regions 1893 and 1897 also produced C-class flares. Solar activity 
is expected to be low to moderate for the next 3 days. The solar 
wind speed increased from around 03UT with the onset of a coronal 
hole effects and has hovered around 500 km/s since around 13UT. 
The IMF Bz component varied up to around +10nT and down to -7nT, 
but has remained within +/-5nT for the last 6 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22322222
      Darwin               9   22322223
      Townsville           9   22323222
      Learmonth            8   22332212
      Alice Springs        9   23322222
      Culgoora             8   22322222
      Gingin               8   32322212
      Camden               9   22323222
      Canberra             7   22322112
      Launceston          12   22433223
      Hobart               9   22323222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     9   12333212
      Casey               26   35643223
      Mawson              20   44543222
      Davis               27   44653222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   1211 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Nov     5    Quiet
19 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over 
the last 24 hours, with some active to storm level periods in 
Antarctica. Similar conditions are expected for 17-Nov, with 
quiet conditions likely on 18-19 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days with a chance of SWFs. Some possible high-latitude 
degraded periods on 17-Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Nov   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Nov   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 15 
November and is current for 16-18 Nov. Significant MUF enhancements 
were observed at Niue Island and during local night and after 
dawn in southern AUS/NZ. Enhanced conditions are expected to 
continue for the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 350 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    52600 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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