[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 13 issued 2332 UT on 16 Nov 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 17 10:32:40 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0454UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.6    0750UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 175/129


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Nov             18 Nov             19 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            170/124

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours, 
with an M1 and four C-class flares from active region 1900 (S19W29). 
Regions 1893 and 1897 also produced C-class flares. Solar activity 
is expected to be low to moderate for the next 3 days. The solar 
wind speed increased from around 03UT with the onset of a coronal 
hole effects and has hovered around 500 km/s since around 13UT. 
The IMF Bz component varied up to around +10nT and down to -7nT, 
but has remained within +/-5nT for the last 6 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22322222
      Darwin               9   22322223
      Townsville           9   22323222
      Learmonth            8   22332212
      Alice Springs        9   23322222
      Culgoora             8   22322222
      Gingin               8   32322212
      Camden               9   22323222
      Canberra             7   22322112
      Launceston          12   22433223
      Hobart               9   22323222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     9   12333212
      Casey               26   35643223
      Mawson              20   44543222
      Davis               27   44653222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   1211 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Nov     5    Quiet
19 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over 
the last 24 hours, with some active to storm level periods in 
Antarctica. Similar conditions are expected for 17-Nov, with 
quiet conditions likely on 18-19 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days with a chance of SWFs. Some possible high-latitude 
degraded periods on 17-Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Nov   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Nov   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 15 
November and is current for 16-18 Nov. Significant MUF enhancements 
were observed at Niue Island and during local night and after 
dawn in southern AUS/NZ. Enhanced conditions are expected to 
continue for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 350 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    52600 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list