[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 15 Nov 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 16 10:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0230UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with an M1 event from active region 1899 (N10E50) and C-class
flares from three other regions. Solar activity is expected to
be low to moderate for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed
remained around 350 km/s over the UT day. The IMF Bz component
was negative for most of that period and is currently around
-6nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22212222
Darwin 7 22112223
Townsville 5 21211222
Learmonth 7 12212322
Alice Springs 6 21112223
Culgoora 6 22211222
Gingin 8 22212332
Camden 6 22211222
Canberra 4 11111222
Launceston 9 22222323
Hobart 7 22211223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
Macquarie Island 10 22123422
Casey 13 24422223
Mawson 24 44223355
Davis 17 34433233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 12 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet with isolated
unsettled periods over the last 24 hours in the Australian region,
with some active to minor storm periods in Antarctica. Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected for 16-17 Nov, becoming
quiet by 18-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days with a chance of SWFs. Some degraded conditions
at high latitudes are possible 16-17 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 15
November and is current for 16-18 Nov. Significant MUF enhancements
were observed over AUS/NZ during the last 24 hours and after
local dawn at Niue Island. Enhanced conditions are expected to
continue for the next 3 days, with some high-latitude degradations
due to expected geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 54000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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