[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 15 Nov 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 16 10:30:17 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0230UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 178/131


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Nov             17 Nov             18 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            175/129

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours, 
with an M1 event from active region 1899 (N10E50) and C-class 
flares from three other regions. Solar activity is expected to 
be low to moderate for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed 
remained around 350 km/s over the UT day. The IMF Bz component 
was negative for most of that period and is currently around 
-6nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22212222
      Darwin               7   22112223
      Townsville           5   21211222
      Learmonth            7   12212322
      Alice Springs        6   21112223
      Culgoora             6   22211222
      Gingin               8   22212332
      Camden               6   22211222
      Canberra             4   11111222
      Launceston           9   22222323
      Hobart               7   22211223    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    10   22123422
      Casey               13   24422223
      Mawson              24   44223355
      Davis               17   34433233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov : 
      Darwin               5   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0001 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Nov    12    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet with isolated 
unsettled periods over the last 24 hours in the Australian region, 
with some active to minor storm periods in Antarctica. Quiet 
to unsettled conditions are expected for 16-17 Nov, becoming 
quiet by 18-Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days with a chance of SWFs. Some degraded conditions 
at high latitudes are possible 16-17 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Nov   124

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Nov    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 15 
November and is current for 16-18 Nov. Significant MUF enhancements 
were observed over AUS/NZ during the last 24 hours and after 
local dawn at Niue Island. Enhanced conditions are expected to 
continue for the next 3 days, with some high-latitude degradations 
due to expected geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 363 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    54000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list