[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 14 Nov 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 15 10:30:24 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 176/130


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Nov             16 Nov             17 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            175/129

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
several C-class flares, the largest being a C4.9 event from active 
region 1897 (S21E35). Regions 1893 (S12W11) and 1900 (S19W13) 
grew in area. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate 
for 15-Nov and low for 16-17 Nov. The solar wind speed drifted 
down from ~400 km/s to ~350 km/s over the UT day. The IMF Bz 
component was mostly neutral, with a negative bias since around 
06UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   10101002
      Darwin               3   10111112
      Townsville           2   10111011
      Learmonth            2   01101002
      Alice Springs        1   00101002
      Culgoora             1   10101001
      Gingin               1   00100002
      Camden               1   10101001
      Canberra             0   00100001
      Launceston           3   11212002
      Hobart               2   01201001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00100001
      Casey                8   22322222
      Mawson              11   11222244
      Davis                7   11332221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   0111 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Effects of the northern hemisphere coronal hole are expected 
to commence during 15-Nov, resulting in unsettled periods which 
could persist into 16-Nov. Conditions should return to quiet 
levels by 17-Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days with a small chance of SWFs on 15-Nov. Some degraded 
conditions at high latitudes are possible 15-16 Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Nov   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 13 
November and is current for 13-15 Nov. Significant MUF enhancements 
were observed over the last 24 hours at Niue Island and in southern 
AUS/NZ, and overnight in northern AUS. Enhanced conditions are 
expected to continue for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    70100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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