[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 13 Nov 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 14 10:30:19 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    1522UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 171/125


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Nov             15 Nov             16 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            165/119            160/114

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was moderate, 
with a single M1 event, and several C-class events. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed. The 12-Nov CME mentioned yesterday is not 
expected to be geoeffective. Region 1890 (S11W69) is declining, 
region 1893 (S13E03) is growing and region 1897 (S21E40) is fragmenting. 
Region 1877 (S13) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due 
to return around 14 Nov. Solar activity is expected to be low 
to moderate for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed remained 
below 400 km/s for most of the day. The IMF Bz component was 
mostly neutral with a negative bias.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11102001
      Darwin               3   11112002
      Townsville           2   11102011
      Learmonth            1   01002001
      Alice Springs        2   11002001
      Culgoora             2   11102011
      Gingin               1   01002000
      Camden               2   11102011
      Canberra             0   00002000
      Launceston           2   11102011
      Hobart               2   11102001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     2   01013000
      Casey                9   34222111
      Mawson               9   12223133
      Davis                9   22333121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1100 1110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Nov     3    Quiet
15 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the Australian 
region during the last 24 hours. There were some more active 
periods in Antarctica in the first half of the UT day. Conditions 
are expected to remain mostly quiet for the next 3 days, with 
some unsettled periods on 15-Nov due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days with a small chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Nov   124

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Nov   115    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
15 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 13 
November and is current for 13-15 Nov. Significant MUF enhancements 
were observed over the last 24 hours in the Niue Island region 
and also overnight and after local dawn over the Australian region. 
Enhanced conditions are expected to continue for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 419 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    90400 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list