[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 13 issued 2330 UT on 13 Nov 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 14 10:30:19 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1522UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was moderate,
with a single M1 event, and several C-class events. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. The 12-Nov CME mentioned yesterday is not
expected to be geoeffective. Region 1890 (S11W69) is declining,
region 1893 (S13E03) is growing and region 1897 (S21E40) is fragmenting.
Region 1877 (S13) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due
to return around 14 Nov. Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed remained
below 400 km/s for most of the day. The IMF Bz component was
mostly neutral with a negative bias.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11102001
Darwin 3 11112002
Townsville 2 11102011
Learmonth 1 01002001
Alice Springs 2 11002001
Culgoora 2 11102011
Gingin 1 01002000
Camden 2 11102011
Canberra 0 00002000
Launceston 2 11102011
Hobart 2 11102001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 01013000
Casey 9 34222111
Mawson 9 12223133
Davis 9 22333121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 3 Quiet
15 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the Australian
region during the last 24 hours. There were some more active
periods in Antarctica in the first half of the UT day. Conditions
are expected to remain mostly quiet for the next 3 days, with
some unsettled periods on 15-Nov due to coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days with a small chance of SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov 115 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
15 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 13
November and is current for 13-15 Nov. Significant MUF enhancements
were observed over the last 24 hours in the Niue Island region
and also overnight and after local dawn over the Australian region.
Enhanced conditions are expected to continue for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 90400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list