[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 13 issued 2331 UT on 12 Nov 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 13 10:31:27 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity was low, with several C-class events,
the largest a C9.8 at 12/2308UT from active region 1897 (S21E53).
A CME first observed in STEREO-A imagery at 12/0809UT might give
Earth a glancing blow, but further analysis is required. Region
1890, which previously produced X-class flares, is declining.
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next
3 days. The solar wind speed declined to ~400 km/s. The IMF Bz
component was mostly neutral with a positive bias.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Darwin 3 22110002
Townsville 3 22110002
Learmonth 2 22110001
Alice Springs 1 11010001
Culgoora 1 11110001
Gingin 2 21010001
Camden 1 11110000
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 1 11110001
Hobart 1 11110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 12001000
Casey 19 46332112
Mawson 5 33121100
Davis 9 34232001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18 4443 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 10 Quiet, then Unsettled to Active
14 Nov 12 Unsettled to Active
15 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the Australian
region during the last 24 hours. There were periods of unsettled
to storm level conditions in Antarctica in the first half of
the UT day. Mostly quiet conditions are expected until the possible
arrival of the 10-Nov CME later on 13-Nov, after which unsettled
to active conditions are likely into 14-Nov. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 15-Nov due to a northern hemisphere
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days with a small chance of SWFs. Some degraded conditions
are possible on 14-15 Nov at high latitudes if an expected increase
in geomagnetic activity eventuates.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Nov 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Nov 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significantly enhanced MUFs were observed for Niue Island
region and overnight in southern AUS/NZ. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values to enhanced in the Australian
region for 13-15 Nov, with some depressed periods in Southern
AUS/NZ possible on 14-15 Nov if an expected increase in geomagnetic
activity occurs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 491 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 158000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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