[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 13 issued 2331 UT on 12 Nov 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 13 10:31:27 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 168/122


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Nov             14 Nov             15 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            165/119

COMMENT: Solar activity was low, with several C-class events, 
the largest a C9.8 at 12/2308UT from active region 1897 (S21E53). 
A CME first observed in STEREO-A imagery at 12/0809UT might give 
Earth a glancing blow, but further analysis is required. Region 
1890, which previously produced X-class flares, is declining. 
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next 
3 days. The solar wind speed declined to ~400 km/s. The IMF Bz 
component was mostly neutral with a positive bias.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Darwin               3   22110002
      Townsville           3   22110002
      Learmonth            2   22110001
      Alice Springs        1   11010001
      Culgoora             1   11110001
      Gingin               2   21010001
      Camden               1   11110000
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Launceston           1   11110001
      Hobart               1   11110001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   12001000
      Casey               19   46332112
      Mawson               5   33121100
      Davis                9   34232001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             18   4443 3321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Nov    10    Quiet, then Unsettled to Active
14 Nov    12    Unsettled to Active
15 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the Australian 
region during the last 24 hours. There were periods of unsettled 
to storm level conditions in Antarctica in the first half of 
the UT day. Mostly quiet conditions are expected until the possible 
arrival of the 10-Nov CME later on 13-Nov, after which unsettled 
to active conditions are likely into 14-Nov. Quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected for 15-Nov due to a northern hemisphere 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days with a small chance of SWFs. Some degraded conditions 
are possible on 14-15 Nov at high latitudes if an expected increase 
in geomagnetic activity eventuates.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Nov   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Nov   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Nov    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Nov    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Significantly enhanced MUFs were observed for Niue Island 
region and overnight in southern AUS/NZ. MUFs are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values to enhanced in the Australian 
region for 13-15 Nov, with some depressed periods in Southern 
AUS/NZ possible on 14-15 Nov if an expected increase in geomagnetic 
activity occurs.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 491 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   158000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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