[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 13 issued 2335 UT on 11 Nov 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 12 10:35:22 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.4    1119UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 164/118


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Nov             13 Nov             14 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            165/119

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was moderate, 
with an M2.4 X-ray flare at 11/1118UT from active region 1895 
(S16E64). Region 1890 (S11W31) produced three C-class events. 
Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next 3 days, 
with a chance of X-class flares. Region 1875 (N6) which previously 
produced X-flare(s) is due to return around 12 Nov. The solar 
wind varied in the range ~450-550 km/s, with an extended period 
from 02-08UT below -5nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22323321
      Cocos Island         7   22223220
      Darwin               9   22323321
      Townsville          10   22423311
      Learmonth           11   32323322
      Alice Springs        9   22323321
      Culgoora            11   23423310
      Gingin              10   32323321
      Camden              11   23423310
      Canberra            11   22433310
      Launceston          13   33-34321
      Hobart              10   33-33210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    29   34654421
      Casey               18   45333322
      Mawson              48   46645643
      Davis               54   44656742

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov : 
      Darwin              10   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              12   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3323 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active
14 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic condition were mostly quiet to unsettled 
over the last 24 hours, with a brief period at active to minor 
storm levels over the Australian region, probably due to a sustained 
period of southward IMF Bz. Active to storm levels were observed 
for much of the UT day in Antarctica. Conditions are expected 
to be quiet to unsettled over the Australian region on 12-Nov 
with unsettled to active conditions possible on 13-14 Nov if 
effects of the 10-Nov CME eventuate.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days with the chance of SWFs. Some degraded conditions 
are possible on 13-14 Nov at high latitudes if an expected increase 
in geomagnetic activity eventuates.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Nov   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Nov    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed for Northern AUS and Niue 
Island regions during local night on 11-Nov. MUFs were near predicted 
monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. MUFs 
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced 
in the Australian region for most of 12-13 Nov. Some depressed 
periods in Southern AUS/NZ are possible later on 13-Nov and into 
14-Nov if an expected increase in geomagnetic activity occurs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 565 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   144000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list