[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 13 issued 2351 UT on 10 Nov 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 11 10:51:01 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.1    0514UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 154/109


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Nov             12 Nov             13 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            155/109

COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with 
region 1890 (S11W27) producing an X1.1 flare at 0514UT. LASCO 
imagery indicates (at least) a partial halo CME but with the 
majority of material ejected southward of the ecliptic plane 
and a potential shock arrival estimated for 12Nov at 12UT +/-6hrs. 
Region 1890 decreased in size over the last 24 hours but still 
remains magnetically complex. Solar wind speed declined over 
the last 24 hours from ~600km/s at 00UT to be ~500km/s at the 
time of this report. Bz ranged between +4nT and -6nT over the 
UT day. Moderate to High solar activity forecast for the next 
2 days with the chance of an X-class event from region 1890. 
Moderate to Low activity expected for 13Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   23222223
      Cocos Island         6   13121222
      Darwin               8   23222113
      Townsville          10   23232223
      Learmonth           11   24232223
      Alice Springs       10   24222223
      Culgoora             9   23222223
      Camden               9   23222223
      Canberra             7   23221122
      Launceston          12   24332223
      Hobart              10   23322223    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    12   32343222
      Casey               24   45433244
      Mawson              38   54333466
      Davis               34   34453365

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              20   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             22   3545 5321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Nov    13    Unsettled to Active
12 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions ranged from Quiet to Unsettled 
over the last 24 hours. Predominantly Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
for 11Nov with possible Active conditions from potential 08Nov 
X-class flare CME shock arrival. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
for 12Nov-13Nov with possible Active periods late in the UT day 
on 12Nov with another potential CME shock arrival from todays 
X-class flare.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal to good for 
the next few days with the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Nov   100

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Nov    95    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Nov    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 10 
November and is current for 10-11 Nov. Enhanced MUF's for Southern 
AUS/NZ and Equatorial regions observed during local day and night 
for 10Nov. Mostly normal ionospheric support for Northern AUS 
and Antarctic regions with disturbed periods between 00UT-08UT 
for Antarctic regions. Notable sporadic E observed at IPS Norfolk 
Is. site between 05UT-12UT and depressed MUF's for IPS Perth 
station during local day. Mostly normal ionospheric support expected 
for Northern AUS/Equatorial and Southern AUS/NZ regions for the 
next 24 hours with the chance of overnight depressions of 10%-20% 
for Southern AUS/NZ and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions 
arising from possible increase in geomagnetic activity from recent 
CME's. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for 12Nov-13Nov. 
Continued chance of SWFs from current active solar regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 485 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:   184000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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