[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 13 issued 2351 UT on 10 Nov 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 11 10:51:01 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.1 0514UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Low to moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with
region 1890 (S11W27) producing an X1.1 flare at 0514UT. LASCO
imagery indicates (at least) a partial halo CME but with the
majority of material ejected southward of the ecliptic plane
and a potential shock arrival estimated for 12Nov at 12UT +/-6hrs.
Region 1890 decreased in size over the last 24 hours but still
remains magnetically complex. Solar wind speed declined over
the last 24 hours from ~600km/s at 00UT to be ~500km/s at the
time of this report. Bz ranged between +4nT and -6nT over the
UT day. Moderate to High solar activity forecast for the next
2 days with the chance of an X-class event from region 1890.
Moderate to Low activity expected for 13Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 23222223
Cocos Island 6 13121222
Darwin 8 23222113
Townsville 10 23232223
Learmonth 11 24232223
Alice Springs 10 24222223
Culgoora 9 23222223
Camden 9 23222223
Canberra 7 23221122
Launceston 12 24332223
Hobart 10 23322223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
Macquarie Island 12 32343222
Casey 24 45433244
Mawson 38 54333466
Davis 34 34453365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 22 3545 5321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 13 Unsettled to Active
12 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions ranged from Quiet to Unsettled
over the last 24 hours. Predominantly Quiet to Unsettled conditions
for 11Nov with possible Active conditions from potential 08Nov
X-class flare CME shock arrival. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
for 12Nov-13Nov with possible Active periods late in the UT day
on 12Nov with another potential CME shock arrival from todays
X-class flare.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal to good for
the next few days with the chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Nov 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 10
November and is current for 10-11 Nov. Enhanced MUF's for Southern
AUS/NZ and Equatorial regions observed during local day and night
for 10Nov. Mostly normal ionospheric support for Northern AUS
and Antarctic regions with disturbed periods between 00UT-08UT
for Antarctic regions. Notable sporadic E observed at IPS Norfolk
Is. site between 05UT-12UT and depressed MUF's for IPS Perth
station during local day. Mostly normal ionospheric support expected
for Northern AUS/Equatorial and Southern AUS/NZ regions for the
next 24 hours with the chance of overnight depressions of 10%-20%
for Southern AUS/NZ and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions
arising from possible increase in geomagnetic activity from recent
CME's. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for 12Nov-13Nov.
Continued chance of SWFs from current active solar regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 184000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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