[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 13 issued 2349 UT on 09 Nov 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 10 10:49:05 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 148/102


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Nov             11 Nov             12 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the 
only notable flare event being a C2.6 x-ray flare from region 
1890 (S12W10) at 0638UT. Region 1890 decreased in size over the 
last 24 hours but still remains magnetically complex. Region 
1891 (S19W45) remains unchanged. Solar wind speed did increase 
over the last 24 hours from 410km/s at 00UT to a maximum of 660km/s 
and is currently ~590km/s at the time of this report. Bz was 
predominantly southward during the first half of the UT day with 
sustained southward periods reaching a maximum of -14nT. Bz then 
fluctuated between +/-4nT during the last half of the UT day. 
Low to Moderate solar activity forecast for the next 3 days with 
only the slight chance of and X-class event.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      18   33453322
      Cocos Island        11   23343210
      Darwin              12   32343212
      Townsville          16   33443322
      Learmonth           18   33453312
      Alice Springs       16   23453212
      Culgoora            17   43443322
      Camden              20   23553322
      Canberra            12   23442221
      Launceston          25   24563322
      Hobart              21   24553322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    26   25545421
      Casey               17   34443232
      Mawson              29   45644322
      Davis               33   34664332

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov : 
      Darwin               9   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2111 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Nov    14    Unsettled to Active
12 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions ranged from Quiet to Active with 
a Minor Storm period between 05UT and 11UT due to the rise in 
solar wind speed and sustained southward Bz during this time 
interval. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the 
next 24 hours. Unsettled conditions for 11Nov with possible Active 
periods due to potential shock arrival from 08Nov X-class flare. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 12Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal to good for 
the next few days with the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Nov   115

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Nov    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced MUF's for Southern AUS/NZ and Northern AUS 
regions observed during local day and enhancements during local 
night for Northern AUS regions. Mostly normal ionospheric support 
for Antarctic regions with disturbed periods between 08UT-16UT. 
Variable conditions for Equatorial regions over the UT day. Mostly 
normal ionospheric support expected for Northern AUS/Equatorial 
and Southern AUS/NZ regions for the next 24 hours with MUF's 
~~15% above monthly predicted values at times due to relatively 
high ionising EUV flux (f10.7cm) levels. Chance of MUF depressions 
of ~15% for Southern AUS/NZ and disturbed conditions for Antarctic 
regions on 11Nov due to possible increased geomagnetic activity. 
Mostly normal HF conditions expected for 12Nov. Continued chance 
of SWFs from current active solar regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    47600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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