[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 13 issued 2349 UT on 09 Nov 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 10 10:49:05 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
only notable flare event being a C2.6 x-ray flare from region
1890 (S12W10) at 0638UT. Region 1890 decreased in size over the
last 24 hours but still remains magnetically complex. Region
1891 (S19W45) remains unchanged. Solar wind speed did increase
over the last 24 hours from 410km/s at 00UT to a maximum of 660km/s
and is currently ~590km/s at the time of this report. Bz was
predominantly southward during the first half of the UT day with
sustained southward periods reaching a maximum of -14nT. Bz then
fluctuated between +/-4nT during the last half of the UT day.
Low to Moderate solar activity forecast for the next 3 days with
only the slight chance of and X-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 18 33453322
Cocos Island 11 23343210
Darwin 12 32343212
Townsville 16 33443322
Learmonth 18 33453312
Alice Springs 16 23453212
Culgoora 17 43443322
Camden 20 23553322
Canberra 12 23442221
Launceston 25 24563322
Hobart 21 24553322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
Macquarie Island 26 25545421
Casey 17 34443232
Mawson 29 45644322
Davis 33 34664332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2111 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Nov 14 Unsettled to Active
12 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions ranged from Quiet to Active with
a Minor Storm period between 05UT and 11UT due to the rise in
solar wind speed and sustained southward Bz during this time
interval. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the
next 24 hours. Unsettled conditions for 11Nov with possible Active
periods due to potential shock arrival from 08Nov X-class flare.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 12Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal to good for
the next few days with the chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Nov 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUF's for Southern AUS/NZ and Northern AUS
regions observed during local day and enhancements during local
night for Northern AUS regions. Mostly normal ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions with disturbed periods between 08UT-16UT.
Variable conditions for Equatorial regions over the UT day. Mostly
normal ionospheric support expected for Northern AUS/Equatorial
and Southern AUS/NZ regions for the next 24 hours with MUF's
~~15% above monthly predicted values at times due to relatively
high ionising EUV flux (f10.7cm) levels. Chance of MUF depressions
of ~15% for Southern AUS/NZ and disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions on 11Nov due to possible increased geomagnetic activity.
Mostly normal HF conditions expected for 12Nov. Continued chance
of SWFs from current active solar regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 47600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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