[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 13 issued 2345 UT on 08 Nov 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 9 10:45:19 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.1 0426UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
M2.3 0928UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours. Continued
flare activity from region 1890 (S10E04) which produced an X1.1
x-ray flare at 0426UT. LASCO imagery indicated a full halo CME
associated with this event with an estimated shock speed derived
from the Culgoora spectrograph type II sweep of 778km/s gives
an approximated shock arrival time of ~10UT on 11Nov (+/-6hrs).
Region 1891 (S18W32) was the source of a M2.3 x-ray flare at
0928UT. LASCO imagery does not indicate that this was a full
halo event. Region 1890 remained relatively unchanged in size
over the last 24hrs but still remains magnetically complex with
potential for further M-class and chance of X-class events. Region
1891 slightly increased in size over the last 24 hours. Solar
wind speed steadily climbed from 390km/s at 00UT to be ~425km/s
at the time of this report. Possible further increase in solar
wind speed due to coronal hole effects in the next 24-48 hours.
Bz ranged between +6nT and -4nT over the UT day without any notable
sustained southward periods. Moderate to High solar activity
expected over the next 3 days with the chance of X-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 23210101
Cocos Island 2 12110100
Darwin 4 22111102
Townsville 5 13221111
Learmonth 5 23220102
Alice Springs 4 23210001
Culgoora 8 2321----
Camden 5 23221011
Canberra 2 12210000
Launceston 6 23320111
Hobart 4 13310001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 12200000
Casey 17 44530113
Mawson 12 53321111
Davis 8 33322101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov :
Darwin 18 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 1434 4221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 6 Quiet
10 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Nov 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Unsettled
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed increased steadily over
the UT day but only reached a maximum of 428km/s at the time
of this report. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for 09Nov-10Nov
with possible increase in solar wind speed in the next 24-48
hours from a small equatorial positioned coronal hole. Unsettled
conditions for 11Nov with possible Active to Minor Storm periods
due to estimated shock arrival from todays X-class flare. In
the IPS magnetometer data for 08 Nov, a weak (9nT) impulse was
observed at 0424UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal to good for
the next few days with the chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on 8
November and is current for 8-9 Nov. Depressed MUF's for Southern
AUS/NZ regions observed during local day for 08Nov due to prior
overnight geomagnetic activity. Enhanced conditions for Northern
AUS and Equatorial regions and good ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions with occasional disturbed periods between 00UT-08UT.
Return to enhanced ionospheric conditions for Northern AUS/Equatorial
and Southern AUS/NZ regions for the next 2 days due to high solar
activity and associated strong ionising EUV flux (f10.7cm) levels.
Chance of MUF depressions of ~15% for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic
regions for 11Nov due to possible increased geomagnetic activity.
Continued chance of SWFs from current active solar regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 53100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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