[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 13 issued 2345 UT on 08 Nov 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 9 10:45:19 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.1    0426UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.3    0928UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 146/100


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours. Continued 
flare activity from region 1890 (S10E04) which produced an X1.1 
x-ray flare at 0426UT. LASCO imagery indicated a full halo CME 
associated with this event with an estimated shock speed derived 
from the Culgoora spectrograph type II sweep of 778km/s gives 
an approximated shock arrival time of ~10UT on 11Nov (+/-6hrs). 
Region 1891 (S18W32) was the source of a M2.3 x-ray flare at 
0928UT. LASCO imagery does not indicate that this was a full 
halo event. Region 1890 remained relatively unchanged in size 
over the last 24hrs but still remains magnetically complex with 
potential for further M-class and chance of X-class events. Region 
1891 slightly increased in size over the last 24 hours. Solar 
wind speed steadily climbed from 390km/s at 00UT to be ~425km/s 
at the time of this report. Possible further increase in solar 
wind speed due to coronal hole effects in the next 24-48 hours. 
Bz ranged between +6nT and -4nT over the UT day without any notable 
sustained southward periods. Moderate to High solar activity 
expected over the next 3 days with the chance of X-class events.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   23210101
      Cocos Island         2   12110100
      Darwin               4   22111102
      Townsville           5   13221111
      Learmonth            5   23220102
      Alice Springs        4   23210001
      Culgoora             8   2321----
      Camden               5   23221011
      Canberra             2   12210000
      Launceston           6   23320111
      Hobart               4   13310001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     2   12200000
      Casey               17   44530113
      Mawson              12   53321111
      Davis                8   33322101

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov : 
      Darwin              18   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14   1434 4221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov     6    Quiet
10 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Nov    13    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Unsettled 
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed increased steadily over 
the UT day but only reached a maximum of 428km/s at the time 
of this report. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for 09Nov-10Nov 
with possible increase in solar wind speed in the next 24-48 
hours from a small equatorial positioned coronal hole. Unsettled 
conditions for 11Nov with possible Active to Minor Storm periods 
due to estimated shock arrival from todays X-class flare. In 
the IPS magnetometer data for 08 Nov, a weak (9nT) impulse was 
observed at 0424UT.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal to good for 
the next few days with the chance of SWFs.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Nov    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Nov    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on 8 
November and is current for 8-9 Nov. Depressed MUF's for Southern 
AUS/NZ regions observed during local day for 08Nov due to prior 
overnight geomagnetic activity. Enhanced conditions for Northern 
AUS and Equatorial regions and good ionospheric support for Antarctic 
regions with occasional disturbed periods between 00UT-08UT. 
Return to enhanced ionospheric conditions for Northern AUS/Equatorial 
and Southern AUS/NZ regions for the next 2 days due to high solar 
activity and associated strong ionising EUV flux (f10.7cm) levels. 
Chance of MUF depressions of ~15% for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic 
regions for 11Nov due to possible increased geomagnetic activity. 
Continued chance of SWFs from current active solar regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 363 km/sec  Density:    8.2 p/cc  Temp:    53100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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