[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 13 issued 2354 UT on 07 Nov 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 8 10:54:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 0004UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.3 0340UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.4 1426UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
continued flare activity from region 1890 (S11E15) which produced
two M-class flares with a M2.3 at 0340UT and a M2.4 at 1425UT.
A M1.8 xray flare at 0002UT produced a partial halo CME from
a blindside region. Region 1890 declined in overall size during
the last 24 hours but still remains magnetically complex. Region
1891 (S18W18) increase slightly in size over the last 24 hours.
Bz was southward during the first half of the UT day reaching
a maximum of -9nT during sustained southward periods. Solar wind
speed steadily climbed from 350km/s at 00UT to be ~390km/s at
the time of this report. Low to Moderate solar activity expected
over the next 3 days with the chance of M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 22343122
Cocos Island 7 12233121
Darwin 10 22243122
Townsville 12 32343122
Learmonth 10 22243122
Alice Springs 10 22243122
Culgoora 11 22343122
Camden 11 22343122
Canberra 6 12232012
Launceston 12 22343123
Hobart 9 22333112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
Macquarie Island 14 24253121
Casey 16 44433122
Mawson 26 34455234
Davis 18 33544122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0011 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Nov 5 Quiet
10 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Active over
the last 24 hours due to sustained southward BZ periods in the
early part of the UT day. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected
for 08Nov and mostly Quiet conditions for 09Nov and 10Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal to good for
the next few days with the chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced conditions observed across the Australian/NZ
regions due to strong ionising EUV flux (f10.7cm) levels with
occasional depressions due to geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal
HF conditions expected for the next 24 hours with possible enhanced
conditions for Northern AUS/Equatorial and Southern AUS/NZ regions
for the next 3 days. Continued chance of SWFs from current active
solar regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 40300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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