[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 13 issued 2354 UT on 07 Nov 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 8 10:54:21 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.8    0004UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M2.3    0340UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.4    1426UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 148/102


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Nov             09 Nov             10 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            160/114

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with 
continued flare activity from region 1890 (S11E15) which produced 
two M-class flares with a M2.3 at 0340UT and a M2.4 at 1425UT. 
A M1.8 xray flare at 0002UT produced a partial halo CME from 
a blindside region. Region 1890 declined in overall size during 
the last 24 hours but still remains magnetically complex. Region 
1891 (S18W18) increase slightly in size over the last 24 hours. 
Bz was southward during the first half of the UT day reaching 
a maximum of -9nT during sustained southward periods. Solar wind 
speed steadily climbed from 350km/s at 00UT to be ~390km/s at 
the time of this report. Low to Moderate solar activity expected 
over the next 3 days with the chance of M-class events.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   22343122
      Cocos Island         7   12233121
      Darwin              10   22243122
      Townsville          12   32343122
      Learmonth           10   22243122
      Alice Springs       10   22243122
      Culgoora            11   22343122
      Camden              11   22343122
      Canberra             6   12232012
      Launceston          12   22343123
      Hobart               9   22333112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    14   24253121
      Casey               16   44433122
      Mawson              26   34455234
      Davis               18   33544122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0011 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Nov     9    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Nov     5    Quiet
10 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Active over 
the last 24 hours due to sustained southward BZ periods in the 
early part of the UT day. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected 
for 08Nov and mostly Quiet conditions for 09Nov and 10Nov.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal to good for 
the next few days with the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Nov   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Nov    95    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced conditions observed across the Australian/NZ 
regions due to strong ionising EUV flux (f10.7cm) levels with 
occasional depressions due to geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal 
HF conditions expected for the next 24 hours with possible enhanced 
conditions for Northern AUS/Equatorial and Southern AUS/NZ regions 
for the next 3 days. Continued chance of SWFs from current active 
solar regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    40300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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