[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 13 issued 2346 UT on 06 Nov 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 7 10:46:41 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X3.4 05/2212UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
M3.8 1346UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Low to Moderate Low to Moderate Low to Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Moderate solar activity observed over the last 24 hours
with the largest flare event being an M3.8 xray flare at 1346UT
from region 1890. This region also produced numerous C-class
events. Further analysis of yesterdays X3 flare indicates that
it was not earth directed. Region 1890 remained relatively unchanged
in size and complexity over the last 24 hours and has the potential
for further M-class and the chance of X-class events. Solar wind
speed remains low and it is ~350km/s at the time of this report.
Bz ranged between +/-5nT over the UT day without any sustained
southward periods. Low to Moderate solar activity is expected
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11110112
Cocos Island 2 10110111
Darwin 3 21110112
Townsville 3 11110112
Learmonth 3 11------
Alice Springs 3 21010112
Culgoora 3 11110112
Camden 3 21110112
Canberra 1 10000011
Launceston 3 11110112
Hobart 3 111101-2
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000011
Casey 12 34421122
Mawson 13 21211245
Davis 9 22322232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1111 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 5 Quiet
08 Nov 5 Quiet
09 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Generally
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal to good for
the next few days with the chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 6
November and is current for 6-7 Nov. Enhanced conditions observed
across the entire Australian/NZ region due to strong ionising
EUV flux (f10.7cm) levels. Similar enhanced ionospheric conditions
are expected for the next 3 days with the continued chance of
SWFs from current active solar regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 55300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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