[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 13 issued 2346 UT on 06 Nov 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 7 10:46:41 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X3.4 05/2212UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M3.8    1346UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 154/109


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Nov             08 Nov             09 Nov
Activity     Low to Moderate    Low to Moderate    Low to Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            150/105

COMMENT: Moderate solar activity observed over the last 24 hours 
with the largest flare event being an M3.8 xray flare at 1346UT 
from region 1890. This region also produced numerous C-class 
events. Further analysis of yesterdays X3 flare indicates that 
it was not earth directed. Region 1890 remained relatively unchanged 
in size and complexity over the last 24 hours and has the potential 
for further M-class and the chance of X-class events. Solar wind 
speed remains low and it is ~350km/s at the time of this report. 
Bz ranged between +/-5nT over the UT day without any sustained 
southward periods. Low to Moderate solar activity is expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11110112
      Cocos Island         2   10110111
      Darwin               3   21110112
      Townsville           3   11110112
      Learmonth            3   11------
      Alice Springs        3   21010112
      Culgoora             3   11110112
      Camden               3   21110112
      Canberra             1   10000011
      Launceston           3   11110112
      Hobart               3   111101-2    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000011
      Casey               12   34421122
      Mawson              13   21211245
      Davis                9   22322232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1111 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Nov     5    Quiet
08 Nov     5    Quiet
09 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Generally 
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal to good for 
the next few days with the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Nov   119

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
  Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Nov   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Nov   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Nov   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 6 
November and is current for 6-7 Nov. Enhanced conditions observed 
across the entire Australian/NZ region due to strong ionising 
EUV flux (f10.7cm) levels. Similar enhanced ionospheric conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days with the continued chance of 
SWFs from current active solar regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 355 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    55300 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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