[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 13 issued 2351 UT on 05 Nov 2013

Wed Nov 6 10:51:24 EST 2013

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.5    0818UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  X3.4    2212UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 149/104

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Nov             07 Nov             08 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with 
significant flare activity from region 1890 (S11E40). Region 
1890 was the source of an M2.5 xray flare at 0818UT and a X3.3 
xray flare at 2212UT along with numerous C-class events. Preliminary 
data suggest that there was no associated CME with the X-class 
event, but will be re-assessed once LASCO imagery becomes available. 
A CME from the M2.5 flare was observed but it was not earth directed 
as LASCO C2 imagery from 0824UT onwards shows it moving south 
of the ecliptic plane. Region 1890 remained relatively stable 
in terms of growth over the last 24 hours but due to its large 
overall size, high spot number and magnetic complexity, has the 
potential for further M-class and X-class flares. Solar wind 
decreased from 400km/s at 00UT to be 350km/s at the time of this 
report. Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT over the UT day. Solar activity 
is expected to range from Low to Moderate for the next 3 days 
with the chance of further X-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21120202
      Cocos Island         2   12110100
      Darwin               4   21120212
      Townsville           4   2112021-
      Learmonth            4   21120202
      Alice Springs        4   20120203
      Culgoora             3   2111011-
      Camden               5   21120113
      Canberra             2   10110102
      Launceston           5   21210203
      Hobart               3   21110102    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     1   11100100
      Casey               13   44421112
      Mawson              13   44212214
      Davis                9   33331111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0111 1211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Nov     7    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Nov     7    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Nov     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days 
with occasional Unsettled periods.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days with the chance of SWFs.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Nov    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced conditions observed for Equatorial/Northern 
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local night. Normal ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions. Similar enhanced ionospheric conditions 
are expected across the Southern AUS/NZ and Northern AUS/Equatorial 
regions for the next 3 days with the continued chance of SWFs 
from current active solar regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   119000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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