[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 13 issued 2338 UT on 04 Nov 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 5 10:38:38 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 147/101


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Nov             06 Nov             07 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. The largest 
events being a C3.2 xray flare from region 1884 at 0544UT and 
a C2.6 xray flare from region 1890 at 1114UT.A notable backside 
event full halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery between 
05-06UT. Solar wind speed remained slightly elevated at ~390km/s 
at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT over 
the UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain Low to Moderate 
for the next 3 days with chance of M-class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11121311
      Cocos Island         1   01------
      Darwin               5   21111312
      Townsville           6   21121321
      Learmonth            6   12221312
      Alice Springs        5   21111312
      Culgoora             5   11111321
      Camden               6   11221322
      Canberra             3   01111211
      Launceston           6   12221321
      Hobart               6   12221311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     5   02122310
      Casey               16   24531322
      Mawson              17   23232543
      Davis               21   13432632

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2331 1021     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Nov     6    Quiet
06 Nov     6    Quiet
07 Nov     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal to good 
for the next few days with the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Nov    99

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Nov    95    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 4 
November and is current for 4-5 Nov. Enhanced conditions observed 
for IPS Niue Is. station over the last 24 hours as well as during 
local night for Southern AUS and NZ regions. Similar enhanced 
ionospheric conditions are expected across the Southern AUS/NZ 
and Northern AUS/Equatorial regions for the next 3 days with 
the chance of SWFs from current active solar regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    96500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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