[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 13 issued 2345 UT on 03 Nov 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 4 10:45:14 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.0    0522UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 144/98


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Nov             05 Nov             06 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity has been moderate due to an M5-flare 
from region 1884. Further C-class and possible M-class flares 
are expected from solar regions 1884 and 1890. No earth directed 
CMEs were observed during 3 November. Solar wind speeds have 
been predominantly below 400 km/s during 3 November and are expected 
to remain around these low levels for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   23210022
      Cocos Island         2   12100011
      Darwin               4   23200021
      Townsville           5   23200022
      Learmonth            4   13100022
      Alice Springs        4   23100022
      Culgoora             5   13210022
      Camden               5   23210022
      Canberra             4   13210021
      Launceston           7   23320022
      Hobart               6   13320021    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     6   13330001
      Casey               13   34422023
      Mawson              16   33312154
      Davis               18   33422054

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1101 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Nov     6    Quiet
05 Nov     5    Quiet
06 Nov     5    Quiet


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal to good 
for the next few days with the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Nov   102

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Nov   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Nov    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Nov    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal to good 
for the next few days with the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 335 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    27200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list