[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 13 issued 2336 UT on 02 Nov 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 3 10:36:29 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    2221UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Nov             04 Nov             05 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: There have been a number of C-class flares and an isolated 
M1-flare during 2 November. Further C-class flares are expected 
for 3 November with the chance of M-class flares. A full halo 
CME was observed around 05UT on 2 November however analysis of 
SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery suggests a backside event which 
is not expected to be geoeffective. ACE solar wind parameters 
suggest a weak transient impacted the Earth late in the UT day 
of 2 November raising solar wind speeds to around 400 km/s. The 
effects are expected to abate slowly.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11020102
      Cocos Island         1   10010101
      Darwin               2   11021002
      Townsville           3   11021112
      Learmonth            3   21021102
      Alice Springs        2   11020002
      Culgoora             2   01020112
      Camden               3   11020112
      Canberra             0   00010001
      Launceston           3   12021102
      Hobart               2   11010102    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000001
      Casey                8   24311112
      Mawson              11   32111125
      Davis                7   32222112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   3211 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Nov     7    Quiet
04 Nov     6    Quiet
05 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: A weak transient in solar wind parameters impacted the 
Earth late in the UT day of 2 November raising solar wind speeds 
to around 400 km/s. The geomagnetic effects are expected to relatively 
minor.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days with the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Nov    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values
05 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days with the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 370 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    68000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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