[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 13 issued 2336 UT on 02 Nov 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 3 10:36:29 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 2221UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: There have been a number of C-class flares and an isolated
M1-flare during 2 November. Further C-class flares are expected
for 3 November with the chance of M-class flares. A full halo
CME was observed around 05UT on 2 November however analysis of
SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery suggests a backside event which
is not expected to be geoeffective. ACE solar wind parameters
suggest a weak transient impacted the Earth late in the UT day
of 2 November raising solar wind speeds to around 400 km/s. The
effects are expected to abate slowly.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11020102
Cocos Island 1 10010101
Darwin 2 11021002
Townsville 3 11021112
Learmonth 3 21021102
Alice Springs 2 11020002
Culgoora 2 01020112
Camden 3 11020112
Canberra 0 00010001
Launceston 3 12021102
Hobart 2 11010102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 01000001
Casey 8 24311112
Mawson 11 32111125
Davis 7 32222112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 3211 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 7 Quiet
04 Nov 6 Quiet
05 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: A weak transient in solar wind parameters impacted the
Earth late in the UT day of 2 November raising solar wind speeds
to around 400 km/s. The geomagnetic effects are expected to relatively
minor.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days with the chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Nov 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
05 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days with the chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 68000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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