[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 13 issued 2333 UT on 01 Nov 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 2 10:33:35 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**YELLOW**   MAG:GREEN   ION:**YELLOW**
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M6.3    1954UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 145/99


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Nov             03 Nov             04 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity reached High levels during 1 November 
due to an M6-flare from region 1884 otherwise solar activity 
was mostly Low. Solar activity is expected to be predominantly 
Low for 2 November with the chance of isolated M-flares. Solar 
wind speeds have been predominantly below 400 km/s during 1 November 
and are expected to continue at low levels for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22113011
      Cocos Island         2   12101001
      Darwin               3   12112011
      Townsville           5   12113111
      Learmonth            6   22123012
      Alice Springs        4   11113011
      Culgoora             5   22113011
      Camden               5   22123001
      Canberra             2   11012000
      Launceston           5   22123011
      Hobart               5   22123001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     7   12234000
      Casey               11   33333122
      Mawson              17   44323243
      Davis               13   34342221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2011 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Nov     6    Mostly Quiet with the chance of isolated Unsettled 
                periods.
03 Nov     5    Quiet
04 Nov     5    Quiet


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal
03 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal
04 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal

COMMENT: Mostly good to fair HF conditions are expected for the 
next few days with the chance of SWFs and isolated depressions 
at times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Nov   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      88
Nov      71
Dec      69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Nov    85    Variable conditions from enhanced to depressed 
                at times
03 Nov    90    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced
04 Nov    90    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be variable during 2 November 
with mostly normal to good conditions and isolated depressions 
at times. There is still the chance of SWFs for 2 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:   109000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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