[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 13 issued 2347 UT on 31 Oct 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 1 10:47:29 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 1352UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate due to an isolated M1-flare
from region 1877 on the west limb. Solar regions have continued
to simplify and mostly Low levels are expected for 1 November,
however some regions still have the potential for isolated M-class
flares. Solar wind parameters suggest a weak CME impacted the
Earth during 31 October with small changes in most parameters,
these changes being less significant than forecast. Solar wind
parameters are expected to be mostly Low to moderate for 1 November
and abate slowly over the following days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 11132322
Cocos Island 5 -1122311
Darwin 7 11132322
Townsville 10 21133323
Learmonth 8 21132322
Alice Springs 7 20032322
Culgoora 7 10132322
Camden 7 10132322
Canberra 4 10022212
Launceston 8 21122323
Hobart 6 11122322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
Macquarie Island 3 00111222
Casey 16 23532233
Mawson 17 42323235
Davis 13 23433223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 0034 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 12 Unsettled to Quiet, with the chance of Active
periods
02 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 29 October
and is current for 30 Oct to 1 Nov. The effects of the CME forecast
to impact the Earth during 31 October were less significant than
forecast with only Unsettled levels observed for the Australian
region and Active to Minor storm periods observed at some high
latitude stations. Mostly Unsettled to Quiet levels are expected
for 1 to 3 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Poor-normal Poor-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions have been variable during 31 October ranging
from good to poor. Mostly good to fair HF conditions are expected
for the next few days with a small chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov 80 Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced
with isolated depressions at times.
02 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 32 was issued
on 30 October and is current for 31 Oct to 1 Nov. HF conditions
have been variable during 31 October with MUFs ranging from depressed
to enhanced. HF conditions are expected to be variable during
1 November with mostly normal to good conditions and isolated
depressions at times. There is still the chance of SWFs for 1
November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 66600 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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