[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 13 issued 2347 UT on 31 Oct 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 1 10:47:29 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN  ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.9    1352UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 143/97


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Nov             02 Nov             03 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate due to an isolated M1-flare 
from region 1877 on the west limb. Solar regions have continued 
to simplify and mostly Low levels are expected for 1 November, 
however some regions still have the potential for isolated M-class 
flares. Solar wind parameters suggest a weak CME impacted the 
Earth during 31 October with small changes in most parameters, 
these changes being less significant than forecast. Solar wind 
parameters are expected to be mostly Low to moderate for 1 November 
and abate slowly over the following days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   11132322
      Cocos Island         5   -1122311
      Darwin               7   11132322
      Townsville          10   21133323
      Learmonth            8   21132322
      Alice Springs        7   20032322
      Culgoora             7   10132322
      Camden               7   10132322
      Canberra             4   10022212
      Launceston           8   21122323
      Hobart               6   11122322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     3   00111222
      Casey               16   23532233
      Mawson              17   42323235
      Davis               13   23433223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   0034 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Nov    12    Unsettled to Quiet, with the chance of Active 
                periods
02 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Nov     6    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 29 October 
and is current for 30 Oct to 1 Nov. The effects of the CME forecast 
to impact the Earth during 31 October were less significant than 
forecast with only Unsettled levels observed for the Australian 
region and Active to Minor storm periods observed at some high 
latitude stations. Mostly Unsettled to Quiet levels are expected 
for 1 to 3 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Oct      Poor-normal    Poor-normal    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions have been variable during 31 October ranging 
from good to poor. Mostly good to fair HF conditions are expected 
for the next few days with a small chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Oct    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      68
Oct      72
Nov      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Nov    80    Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
                with isolated depressions at times.
02 Nov    85    Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 32 was issued 
on 30 October and is current for 31 Oct to 1 Nov. HF conditions 
have been variable during 31 October with MUFs ranging from depressed 
to enhanced. HF conditions are expected to be variable during 
1 November with mostly normal to good conditions and isolated 
depressions at times. There is still the chance of SWFs for 1 
November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    66600 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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