[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 13 issued 2351 UT on 25 May 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 26 09:51:49 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 May             27 May             28 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only 
minor C-class activity, the largest event being a C2.1 flare 
from region 1755 at 1049UT. Activity is expected to be Low for 
the next 3 days with the small chance of a M-class flare. Solar 
wind velocity increased due to CME effects from ~520km/s at 00UT 
to be ~760 km/s at the time of this report. Bz ranged between 
+9nT and -11nT with sustained southward periods. The 10MeV protons 
dropped to below the 10.0 pfu threshold level. Solar wind speed 
is expected to remain elevated for the next 2 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Unsettled to 
Active

Estimated Indices 25 May : A   K           
   Australian Region      19   33344334
      Cocos Island        13   32233333
      Darwin              18   33344234
      Townsville          19   33344334
      Learmonth           26   32353355
      Alice Springs       18   33244334
      Culgoora            22   33345334
      Gingin              23   33234355
      Camden              23   34345334
      Canberra            16   23234334
      Hobart              23   34345334    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 May :
      Macquarie Island    46   35456564
      Casey               19   43343334
      Mawson              66   66443676
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gingin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            44   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             29                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             23   3423 3364     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 May    15    Unsettled to Active
27 May    10    Unsettled
28 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active over the 
last 24 hours with isolated Minor Storm periods. The increased 
activity due to the ongoing effects of the glancing impact of 
the 22May M5-class flare CME. Unsettled to Active conditions 
are expected for 26May and mostly Unsettled conditions expected 
for 27May. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 28May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal         Normal         Poor           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed over the last 
24 hours for low to mid latitudes with poor ionospheric support 
at high latitudes due to the recent PCA event and increased geomagnetic 
activity. Depressed MUFs possible for mid latitudes and disturbed 
conditions at high latitudes on 26-27 May due to increased geomagnetic 
activity. SWFs possible over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 May    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 May    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
27 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
28 May    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed during local day for IPS Cocos 
Is. and Niue Is. Near predicted monthly values for Northern and 
Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs expected 
to be near monthly predicted values for 26May-27May with possible 
depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed conditions 
for Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic activity. 
Normal ionospheric support expected for 28May. SWFs possible 
over this forecast period.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.2E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 461 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:   174000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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