[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 13 issued 2353 UT on 24 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 25 09:53:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only
minor C-class activity. Activity is expected to range between
Low to Moderate for the next 3 days with the chance of further
M-class flare activity. A shock was observed in the solar wind
parameters at approximately 1745UT in which solar wind velocity
increased from ~450 km/s to be ~550 km/s at the time of this
report. Corresponding increases in the solar wind temperature
and density are consistent with the anticipated arrival of the
glancing blow CME from the M5 flare on 22May. Bz ranged between
+10nT and -14nT with sustained southward periods. The 10MeV protons
remain just above the threshold of 10.0 pfu and are expect to
fall below this value in the next few hours. Solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated for the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet to Unsettled
with Active periods.
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 10 22223233
Cocos Island 7 222231--
Darwin 11 22223243
Townsville 15 2333334-
Learmonth 11 22223243
Alice Springs 9 2222323-
Norfolk Island 9 12223233
Culgoora 9 12223233
Gingin 13 2223424-
Camden 9 12223233
Canberra 8 12123232
Hobart 10 12233233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
Macquarie Island 31 2236624-
Casey 20 4443333-
Mawson 31 4534445-
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2302 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 13 Unsettled to Active
26 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 23 May and is
current for 23-25 May. Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet
to Active levels over the last 24 hours with the increased activity
due to the arrival of the glancing impact of the 22May M5-class
flare CME. Unsettled conditions are expected for 25May with Active
periods expected over the UT day. Quiet conditions expected for
26May-27May with Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Fair-poor
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed over the last
24 hours with poor ionospheric support at high latitudes due
to the current PCA event. Possible degraded conditions for mid
to high latitudes on 25 May due to increased geomagnetic activity.
SWFs possible over the next few days. Significantly degraded
conditions are expected at high latitudes due to the current
PCA event and increased geomagnetic activity for the next 24
hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
26 May 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
27 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed over the last
24 hours, with enhanced MUFs observed for IPS Cocos Is. and Niue
Is. during local day. MUFs expected to be near monthly predicted
values for 25May with possible depressed periods for Southern
AUS/NZ regions during local night and disturbed conditions for
Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic activity. Depressed
conditions expected after local dawn for 26May for Southern AUS/NZ
regions and continued disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions.
Mostly normal conditions expected for Northern AUS and Equatorial
regions for the next 3 days. SWFs possible over this forecast
period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.9E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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