[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 13 issued 2336 UT on 26 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 27 09:36:56 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 May 28 May 29 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low today, the largest flare being
a C3.8 flare at 0957UT from region 1756(S20W13). Solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 700 km/s to around 580 km/s by 2200UT
today and then increased to nearly 650 km/s by the time of this
report (2330UT). The Bz component of IMF varied between +6/-5
nT for most parts of the UT day today. Low levels of solar activity
may be expected for the next three days with some possibility
of isolated M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 May : A K
Australian Region 10 33322321
Cocos Island 9 33222321
Darwin 9 -3312322
Townsville 11 04322332
Learmonth 9 -3322321
Alice Springs 9 33311321
Culgoora 11 33422221
Gingin 13 33322431
Camden 12 33422321
Canberra 6 -3311210
Hobart 11 33422221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 May :
Macquarie Island 17 33533331
Casey 14 34412332
Mawson 60 36433775
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May :
Darwin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 12 (Quiet)
Gingin 77 (Active)
Canberra 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A K
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 40 4644 4654
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 May 7 Quiet to Unsettled
29 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 26 May and is
current for 26-27 May. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet
to unsettled with isolated active periods. Quiet to unsettled
conditions on 27 and 28 May and mostly quiet conditions on 29
May may be expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed during local day on low latitudes.
Near predicted monthly values to mild MUF depressions observed
on high and some mid latitude locations. Minor to mild MUF depressions
possible on high and at times on mid latitude locations on
27 May. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for 28 and 29 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 May 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 75% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 May 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
28 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
29 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed during local day for IPS Cocos
Is. and Niue Is. Near predicted monthly values to mild MUF depressions
observed in Southern Aus/NZ regions. Minor MUF depressions possible
in Southern Aus/NZ regions on 27 May. Mostly normal HF conditions
expected for 28 and 29 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 549 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 334000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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