[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 13 issued 2332 UT on 21 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 22 09:32:29 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 May 23 May 24 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during 21 May, with low level
C-class flares from a number of regions. Region 1748 still remains
the most complex and has the potential for further C and M-class
flare activity. CME activity observed during 21 May is not expected
to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds remained predominantly
below 450 km/s during 21 May with the IMF Bz fluctuating between
+- 5nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase slightly over
the next few days due to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11111012
Cocos Island 4 21111121
Darwin 4 11211022
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 3 11111022
Alice Springs 2 01210012
Culgoora 2 11111011
Gingin 3 11110022
Camden 2 12110011
Canberra 1 01100001
Hobart 4 22-11112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 May :
Macquarie Island 3 10301001
Casey 6 22221122
Mawson 15 33322153
Davis 22 32322165
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2101 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet during 21 May with some
isolated activity observed at high latitudes. Mostly Quiet to
Unsettled levels are expected for the next few days with the
small chance of isolated Active periods at times due to weak
coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed during 21 May.
Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few days with
the chance of SWFs. Degraded HF conditions previously forecast
for 20-21 May did not eventuate as anticipated CME effects were
muted.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 May 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 65% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
23 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
24 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 21
May and is current for 21-22 May. Mostly normal conditions were
observed during 21 May. Mostly normal conditions are expected
for the next few days with the chance of SWFs. Degraded HF conditions
previously forecast for 20-21 May did not eventuate as anticipated
CME effects were muted.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 82500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list