[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 May 13 issued 2357 UT on 22 May 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 23 09:57:03 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2355UT/22 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **   ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.0    1335UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 May             24 May             25 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was High during 22 May with an M5-flare 
observed at 1332 UT from solar region 1745 located towards the 
west limb. An impressive CME observed in association with this 
event is expected to have a glancing impact at Earth in the latter 
half of the UT day of 24 May. Energetic particles have also been 
observed in association with this event and the 10 MeV protons 
are presently above the S2-level. The 100 MeV protons are presently 
above 1pfu. Further M-class flare activity is possible of the 
next few days. Solar wind speeds declined slowly over the past 
24 hours from approximately 500 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected 
to increase during the latter half of the UT day of 24 May. ACE 
solar wind data presently appears to be contaminated due to the 
energetic particle event presently in progress.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 22 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22223222
      Cocos Island         6   21222221
      Darwin              10   22223332
      Townsville          10   32223232
      Learmonth           10   22223332
      Alice Springs        7   21223222
      Culgoora             7   22223221
      Gingin              11   32223332
      Camden               7   21223221
      Canberra             6   21123221
      Hobart               7   21223221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
      Macquarie Island    14   21154321
      Casey               12   33223233
      Mawson              32   54424436
      Davis               19   433-----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2222 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 May    20    Initially Quiet to Unsettled with storm periods 
                possible in the latter half of the UT day.
25 May    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled during 22 
May. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled 
for 23 May and the first half of the UT day of 24 May. Activity 
is expected to increase in the latter half of the UT day of 24 
May due to the anticipated glancing impact of the CME associated 
with the M5-flare observed during 22 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
24 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor(PCA)
25 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed during 22 May. 
Mostly normal conditions are expected for 23-24 May with degraded 
conditions expected 25 May as the result of anticipated increased 
geomagnetic activity. SWFs possible over the next few days. Significantly 
degraded conditions are expected at high latitudes due to a PCA 
event likely to remain in progress for the next couple of days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 May    85

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
24 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
25 May    40    Depressed 10-20%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed during 22 May. 
Mostly normal conditions are expected for 23-24 May with degraded 
conditions expected 25 May as the result of anticipated increased 
geomagnetic activity. SWFs possible over the next few days. Significantly 
degraded conditions are expected at high latitudes due to a PCA 
event likely to remain in progress for the next couple of days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 405 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    72600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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