[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 13 issued 2351 UT on 20 May 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 21 09:51:23 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.7    0526UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 132/86


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 May             22 May             23 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during 20 May, with an M1-flare 
appearing to originate from the east limb and multiple C-class 
flares from region 1748. Region 1748 still remains the most complex 
and has the potential for further C and M-class flare activity. 
CME activity observed during 20 May is not expected to be geoeffective. 
Solar wind speeds remained predominantly below 450 km/s during 
20 May with the IMF remaining predominantly northward.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21112221
      Cocos Island         4   21111121
      Darwin               5   22102222
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            5   31012221
      Alice Springs        4   21102221
      Culgoora             4   21111221
      Gingin               4   22002121
      Camden               4   22102210
      Canberra             1   11001110
      Hobart               4   11112221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 May :
      Macquarie Island     2   10011210
      Casey                8   33212222
      Mawson              15   33201254

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14   4232 3324     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet during 20 May with some 
minor activity observed at high latitudes. The impacts of the 
CME that arrived late on 19 May were reduced due to the predominant 
northward polarity of the IMF. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels 
are expected for the next few days with the chance of isolated 
Active periods at times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed during 20 May. 
Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few days with 
the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 May    87

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
22 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
23 May    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 11 was issued 
on 18 May and is current for 20-21 May. Mostly normal conditions 
were observed during 20 May. Mostly normal conditions are expected 
for the next few days with the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    63100 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list