[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 13 issued 2330 UT on 19 May 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 20 09:30:16 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 135/89


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 May             21 May             22 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a 
C9.9 from an un-numbered region on the east limb at 1750UT the 
largest flare of the period. Previously highly active region 
AR1748 has now declined to just 60mil in size, but remains a 
beta-gamma. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 2220UT 
on 19 May indicating the later than expected arrival of the CME 
from 17-May. The solar wind speed jumped to 450km/s, the total 
field to above 15nT, and density to 25/cm3. At the time of this 
report, the IMF remains northwards within the sheath of the CME. 
Proton flux (>10MeV) at geosynchronous orbit fell back below 
event level.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 19 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21322212
      Cocos Island         7   31222212
      Darwin               8   22312213
      Townsville           8   22322222
      Learmonth            8   22323212
      Alice Springs        5   21312210
      Culgoora             6   21312212
      Gingin               9   32223321
      Camden               6   21321212
      Canberra             4   20311201
      Hobart               8   -1332222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
      Macquarie Island    22   31554412
      Casey               10   34311212
      Mawson              20   53422424

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             24   4643 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 May    25    Active
21 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 18 May and is 
current for 19-20 May. Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed 
over the last 24 hours. The CME from 17-May expected to arrive 
midday yesterday was detected at the ACE spacecraft at 2220UT, 
and has not yet produced any geomagnetic disturbance. The associated 
shock was relatively weak and the IMF within the sheath is northwards. 
The shock is expected to produce a sudden impulse in the geomagnetic 
field within the next half an hour (near 2330UT). The likely 
impact of the CME on the geomagnetic field over the day will 
depend on the orientation of the magnetic field within the CME. 
Expect Active to Minor Storm conditions for 20-May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 May    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 May    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 May    70    Near predicted monthly values
22 May    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 11 was issued 
on 18 May and is current for 20-21 May. Mostly normal ionospheric 
support observed over the AUS/NZ region for the last 24 hours. 
Degraded HF conditions expected 20-May due to increased geomagnetic 
activity, particularly in S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic locations. MUFs 
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 20-May, with 
overnight depressions for Southern AUS/NZ regions. More widespread 
MUF depressions expected from 21-May. Some chance of short wave 
fadeouts 20-May due to solar active regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:   139000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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