[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 13 issued 2330 UT on 14 May 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 15 09:30:17 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X3.2    0111UT  probable   all    West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 148/102


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 May             16 May             17 May
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours due to 
an X3.2 magnitude X-ray flare at 0111UT from active region 1748 
(N11E63) newly rotated onto the visible disk. The flare was associated 
with a Type II radio sweep and CME, with an estimated speed from 
the Type II of 1300km/s. Due to its source location near the 
limb, the CME is not expected to be geoeffective. The magnetic 
complexity of this region remains unclear due to its near limb 
location, however it is a large region and highly active and 
is expected to produce further flaring over the next few days. 
Any associated CMEs will be of more significance when it rotates 
further onto the visible disk. Solar activity is expected to 
be Moderate for the next 3 days with the further chance of isolated 
X-class flares from AR1748. Region AR1745 (N14E30) has decreased 
in size to 450mil, but remains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. 
Expect C class flares from this region. The solar wind speed 
remains near 350km/s, and the IMF relatively stable. The total 
magnetic field and solar wind density are slightly elevated. 
EPAM ions (often a precurser to geomagnetic activity) remain 
elevated but below the event threshold, as are protons at geosynchronous 
orbit. Solar wind modelling suggests a glancing blow from an 
erupting filament CME from 12 May sometime in the first half 
of the UT day 15-May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 14 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21223211
      Cocos Island         5   20222211
      Darwin               5   -1122212
      Townsville          10   32233222
      Learmonth            4   -0222211
      Alice Springs        7   30223211
      Culgoora             7   21223212
      Gingin               8   31223221
      Camden               7   21223212
      Canberra             5   10123211
      Hobart               9   21234211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 May :
      Macquarie Island    19   00256311
      Casey                6   32212111
      Mawson              10   22222324

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1111 1322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 May    15    Unsettled to Active
16 May    12    Unsettled
17 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions expected early on 15-May, becoming 
Unsettled with isolated Active periods later in the day following 
a possible glancing blow from a erupting filament CME. The modelling 
suggests a CME arrival time near 6UT, which would result in overnight 
geomagnetic activity in the Australian region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions expected with the chance of 
short-wave fadeouts from isolated M and X class flares next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 May    88

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 55% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 May    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 May    70    Near predicted monthly values
17 May    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 13 
May and is current for 14-15 May. A short-wave fadeout, peaking 
at 0111UT was observed on 14-May, centred over the West Pacific 
and affecting all of mainland Australia. Otherwise, mostly normal 
ionospheric support observed over the AUS/NZ region for the last 
24 hours. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values 15-May, 
with a chance of depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions 
16-17 May. Short wave fadeouts possible next two days with a 
reasonable chance of isolated M and X flares from solar active 
regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 359 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    44300 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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