[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 May 13 issued 2330 UT on 13 May 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 14 09:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 12/2246UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
X1.8 0217UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 1204UT possible lower European
X2.9 1605UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 May 15 May 16 May
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with
two X class X-ray flares from an active region on the east limb
(AR1748, N08E89). The two flares, an X1.7 at 0216UT and an X2.8
at 1605UT were both associated with a CME, however due to the
source location, neither CME is expected to be geoeffective.
Due to its limb location the magnetic complexity of this region
is unclear, however it is highly active and is expected to produce
further flaring over the next few days. Any associated CMEs will
be of more significance when it rotates further onto the visible
disk. Solar activity is expected to be Moderate for the next
3 days with the further chance of isolated X-class flares from
AR1748. M and C class flares can be expected from AR1745 (N14E41)
which remains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration of size 600
millionths of the solar disk. The solar wind speed was slow (~350km/s)
over the UT day. The IMF total magnetic field and solar wind
density increased over the day, however IMF Bz fluctuations remained
within +/- 5nT. EPAM ions (often a precurser to geomagnetic activity)
also increased over the UT day but remained below the event threshold.
Expect an increase in solar wind density and total magnetic field
on 14May, followed by an increase in solar wind speed, due to
combined effects of weak coronal hole and a possible glancing
blow of an erupting filament CME from 12May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 May : A K
Australian Region 3 21110111
Cocos Island 3 21211110
Darwin 4 31210111
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 3 31210100
Alice Springs 2 21100101
Culgoora 3 21110111
Gingin 3 21210110
Camden 2 21100111
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 3 21110111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 6 13312111
Mawson 3 11------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2201 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 May 15 Unsettled to Active
16 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for 14-May. Unsettled conditions with
isolated Active periods possible 15-May due to combined effects
of a weak coronal hole and a glancing blow from a erupting filament
CME that occurred on 12May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
15 May Normal Normal Normal
16 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions expected with the chance of
short-wave fadeouts from isolated M and X class flares next three
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 May 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
16 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 13
May and is current for 14-15 May. Mostly normal ionospheric support
observed over the AUS/NZ region for the last 24 hours. MUFs expected
to be near predicted monthly values 14-May, with a chance of
depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions 15-16 May. Short
wave fadeouts possible next two days with a reasonable chance
of isolated M and X flares from solar active regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 53400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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