[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 13 issued 2337 UT on 12 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 13 09:37:49 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 2033UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.2 2246UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
numerous C class flare activity and two M-class events at the
time of this report. The largest flare event being a M1.9 event
at 2032 from a region on the east limb and a M1.2 event at 2244UT.
Solar activity is expected to range between Low to Moderate for
the next 3 days with the further chance of M-class events. The
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz component ranged between
+/-4nT over the UT day. Solar wind speed declined over the UT
day and was 334km/s at the time of this report. Solar wind speed
is expected to range between 300-400km/s for the next 24-36hrs.
Possible increase in solar wind speed parameters on 14May-15May
due to combined effects of weak coronal hole and a possible glancing
blow of an erupting filament CME from 12May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 2 1-110110
Darwin 2 11110012
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 2 11120001
Alice Springs 1 11010001
Culgoora 1 11110001
Gingin 1 11110001
Camden 1 11010001
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 1 11110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 22211111
Mawson 8 33321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1111 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 4 Quiet
14 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions expected for the next 24 hours with possible Unsettled
conditions for 14May-15May due to combined effects of a weak
coronal hole and a glancing blow from a erupting filament CME
that occurred on 12May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions expected with the chance of
occasional short-wave fadeouts from M class flares.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
14 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed over the
AUS/NZ region for the last 24 hours with only depressed conditions
observed during local night for Northern AUS regions. MUF's expected
to be near predicted monthly values over the next 3 days with
chance of depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ and Northern
AUS regions during local night and enhanced periods for Cocos
and Niue stations during local day. Short wave fadeouts possible
with reasonable chance of M flares from active regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 41500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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