[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 13 issued 2330 UT on 15 May 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 16 09:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.3 0148UT probable all West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 May 17 May 18 May
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours due to
an X1.2 magnitude X-ray flare at 0148UT from active region 1748
(N10E60). The flare was associated with Type II/IV radio sweeps
and a halo CME, with an estimated speed from the Type II of 500km/s.
AR1748 has rotated sufficiently onto the visible disk that this
CME is likely to be geoeffective. SWPC WSA-Enlil modelling of
the event suggests a CME arrival time near midday (UT) on 17-May.
AR1748 is now classified a Dho spot region with a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration (down from yesterday's Eki beta-gamma-delta),
and is now 210mil in size. This region continues to have significant
flaring potential. AR1745 (N13E20) is the other region on the
disk with significant flaring potential, classified an Ekc beta-gamma
region, 430mil in size. Solar activity is expected to be Moderate-High
for the next 3 days with M-class flares expected and a chance
of isolated X-class flares. The solar wind speed increased over
the UT day to near 450km/s, along with some moderate (+/-10nT)
fluctuations in IMF Bz, likely due to the combined effects of
a weak coronal hole and a filament eruption from 12 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 May : A K
Australian Region 7 31223211
Cocos Island 7 22223211
Darwin 8 32223212
Townsville 9 22224222
Learmonth 7 32223210
Alice Springs 7 31223211
Culgoora 6 21223211
Gingin 7 31223210
Camden 7 31223211
Canberra 4 21113100
Hobart 6 21223211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 May :
Macquarie Island 6 00015100
Casey 9 12333222
Mawson 8 12233311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2123 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 May 20 Active
18 May 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours, with an isolated Active period 12-15UT. Quiet-Unsettled
conditions expected 16-May and into the early part of 17-May.
The CME from 15-May is expected to arrive around midday 17-May,
and may produce Active conditions with Minor Storm periods, particularly
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
17 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions expected with the chance of
short-wave fadeouts from isolated M and X class flares next three
days. A weak PCA event is in progress affecting HF communications
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 May 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 May 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 May 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: A short-wave fadeout, peaking at 0148UT was observed
on 15-May, centred over the West Pacific and affecting all of
mainland Australia. Otherwise, mostly normal ionospheric support
observed over the AUS/NZ region for the last 24 hours. A weak
PCA event is in progress affecting HF communications at high
latitudes. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values
16-May, with a chance of depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ
regions overnight 17 May. Short wave fadeouts possible next two
days with a reasonable chance of isolated M and X flares from
solar active regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 41400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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