[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 13 issued 2353 UT on 06 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 7 09:53:54 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24hrs with only
C-class activity, the largest being a C2.4 originating from region
1739 at 0205UT. Solar activity is expected to range between Low
to Moderate for the next 3 days with the chance of a M-class
flare from region 1739. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bz component was predominantly north for most of the UT day,
with maximum of 14nT and two southward excursions of ~1hr at
07UT and 19UT of -7nT and -5nT respectively. Solar wind speed
increased steadily over the UT day from 430km/s to 500km/s at
the time of this report. Solar wind speed is expected to remain
slightly elevated for the next 24-48 hours due to coronal hole
effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 6 21222222
Cocos Island 4 11222111
Darwin 8 22322222
Townsville 8 22332212
Learmonth 8 22322222
Alice Springs 6 21222122
Culgoora 4 21221111
Gingin 7 22222222
Camden 4 11221211
Canberra 4 11221111
Hobart 6 21222122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 May :
Macquarie Island 4 00322001
Casey 8 22332122
Mawson 18 32433135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2221 2321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 May 6 Quiet
09 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours
with an isolated Active period observed at some IPS stations
between 07-12UT. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for
the next 24 hours with some isolated Active periods. Quiet conditions
expected for 08May-09May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions expected with the chance of
occasional short-wave fadeouts from M class flares.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
08 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
09 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF's expected to be near predicted monthly values over
the next 3 days with the chance of depressed ionospheric conditions
for Southern AUS/NZ and Northern AUS regions. Short wave fadeouts
possible with reasonable chance of M flares from active region
1739.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 67700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list