[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 13 issued 2340 UT on 07 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 8 09:40:10 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region
1734 producing the largest flare event of a C1.6 at 0823UT. Solar
activity is expected to range between Low to Moderate for the
next 3 days with the chance of a M-class events. The Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz component ranged between +7nT to -6nT
over the UT day with a notable southward period of -5nT between
14UT-18UT. Solar wind speed remained elevated at ~520km/s. Solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated for the next 24 hours
due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 8 32322211
Cocos Island 4 22201210
Darwin 8 32222222
Townsville 10 33322222
Learmonth 8 32322221
Alice Springs 8 32322211
Culgoora 8 32322211
Gingin 7 33202221
Camden 9 33322211
Canberra 6 23222210
Hobart 8 32223211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
Macquarie Island 6 22203300
Casey 17 33432521
Mawson 17 34442323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 51 (Unsettled)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2132 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 May 7 Quiet
10 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the
next 24 hours with Quiet conditions expected for 09May-10May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions expected with the chance of
occasional short-wave fadeouts from M class flares.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal ionospheric support observed over the AUS/NZ
region for the last 24 hours with notable enhancements for IPS
Cocos Is. and Nuie stations. Disturbed conditions noted for IPS
Brisbane station during local night as well as sporadic E for
Darwin. MUF's expected to be near predicted monthly values over
the next 3 days with the chance of depressed ionospheric conditions
for Southern AUS/NZ and Northern AUS regions and enhanced periods
for Cocos and Niue stations during local day. Short wave fadeouts
possible with reasonable chance of M flares from active regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 481 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 186000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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